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PVC: The futures price has been falling all the way since the pressure level. Is the second test low or reversing to pick up people? Spot trend differentiation

113,605
May 30, 2023, 4:17 PM


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PVCA é °è 'e / e / s / s:é é éPVC市场主流成交价格窄幅调整,全天走势有所分化。估价对比来看:其中华北地区稳定,华东地区上涨10-30元/吨,华南地区上涨20元/吨,东北地区下跌50元/吨,华中地区、西南地区稳定。上游PVC生产企业出厂报价继续维持稳定为主,但一代合同签订不多,贸易商拿货相对谨慎。期货走势先涨后跌,一口价和点价报盘均有,上午盘面点价优势不大,下午期价下行后点价出现优势。其中华东地区基差报盘09合约-(60-110),华南地区09合约-(0-60)好粉+30,北方地区09合约-(350-400),西南地区09合约-(150-270)。即便点价基差尚可但下游制品企业采购积极性不高,多数意向观望,点价挂单较少,一口价成交亦不多,整体市场气氛清淡。乙烯法报盘同样上午存在部分小上调,但是午后回吐涨幅,且成交不佳。

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°é è 'conductor é é °conductorPVC09合约期价走势自中轨压力位一路向下,虽然最终盘面的仓量变化不大,但期价的下行仍以空头进场为主。首先今日商品黑色系以及地产商品涨少跌多,午盘纯碱、玻璃跌超3%,生猪、棕榈油、焦炭、焦煤、豆油跌超2%,商品氛围再次转弱。其次PVC方面期价的运行重新出现了每次反弹力度不及前高的趋势,期价的运行甚至都无法突破中轨位置。技术层面显示布林带(13、13、2)三轨开口再次向下,整体来看短期之内期价的运行仍旧存在进一步走弱的压力,观察下轨位置5600的支撑,期价存在较大的概率二次测试前低位置。

A °é è 'recent recent host é host é í í í éAll of our products are like this, and all of our ideas are like this, because all of our products are going to see all the benefits of all of these products, including all the benefits of all these products, and all the benefits of all these products, and all the benefits of all these products, including all the benefits of all these products, and all the benefits of all these products, including all of the following items: all of these products, including the following projects: all of these products, including the following projects.PVC虽然同样下跌但跌幅未上榜。期现两市的运行现货市场走势分化也可以看出,在不断偏弱筑底的行情中,一方面期现两市走势并不同步,期价的前期上涨并未引发现货市场的连续跟进,反而期价下行现货价格跟跌。高库存供应稳定需求偏弱,且未来需求存在进一步弱化的趋势,在很长一段时间将会制约整体的两市走势。外盘方面市场对美国达成暂时性债务上限协议以避免出现债务违约及美联储进一步加息的可能性进行评估。分析师认为随着达成债务上限协议带来的兴奋感开始消退,市场对美联储6月或7月再次加息的担忧正在上升。整体来看短期之内PVC现货市场仍会低位窄幅运行。

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