Methanol: Low demand, methanol market is weak and difficult to change
111,183 
May 30, 2023, 4:41 PM On May 30, the methanol market price index was 2069.17, up 1.29 from yesterday and 0.06 per cent from the previous month.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on May 29th:
China CFR 247-253 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton
European FOB 263-265EUR / ton, flat
Us FOB 78-81 cents per gallon, flat
CFR in Southeast Asia is US $309-311 per ton, flat.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 1950-2050 (- 50), South: 1900 (0), North: 1900-1950 (0), Lunan: 2170-2200 (0), Henan: 2080-2120 (- 30), Shanxi: 2010-2120 (0), Port: 2155,2190 (0)
Freight:
North Route-North Shandong 170-250 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 220-290 (- 10max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 110-180 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to be weak, the spot price fluctuation range is 20-110 yuan / ton, the futures market volatility is weak, the port basis is strong, the buying order is limited, and the transaction is general; the restart of some devices in the Chinese market makes the supply continue to increase but the demand does not significantly increase, the market cautious mood still exists, and the enthusiasm of the market operators to enter the market is not high. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small, with the quotation of 1900 yuan / ton for the middle and south route and around the north line. 1900-1950 yuan / ton, the low end is stable. At present, the restart of some devices in the field increases the supply, the regional transaction is different, and the transaction in some areas is mediocre. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation downgrade, today's quotation around 1950-2050 yuan / ton, low-end reduction-nbsp;50 yuan / ton, the transaction is general. The market price of consumer land has been partially reduced. Today's quotation in southern Shandong revolves around 2170-2200 yuan / ton, low-end stability, and quotation in northern Shandong. 2110-2130 yuan / ton, low-end reduction-nbsp;30 yuan / ton, there is no obvious negotiation on the floor at present, most wait and see. Today's market bidding price is around 2100-2130 yuan / ton, including Shandong Jincheng methanol bidding price 2130 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2100 yuan / ton, Lihuayi 2110 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical 2110 yuan / ton. The market price in North China is partially reduced, Hebei quotation is around 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. at present, the wait-and-see mood of manufacturers is strong, and the fluctuation of market atmosphere is limited. Shanxi quotation revolves around. 2010-2050 yuan / ton, maintained yesterday. The market price in southwest China has been lowered, with Yungui quotation around 2100-2300 yuan / ton, low-end price reduction of 70 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price drop of 2060-2280 yuan / ton, and low-end price reduction of 110yuan / ton. at present, the cautious mood of market operators is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.
Port market: methanol futures fluctuated lower today. Spot and monthly shipments increased, buying and receiving cautious, the basis fell; long-term unilateral moderate price shipments, arbitrage and exchange to buy, the basis stabilized. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot order: 2155-2225, base difference 09 "135pm" 190 position 6 deal: 2120-2175, base difference 09 "100pm" 115 position 6 deal: 2120-2135, basis difference 09 "90pm" 956 deal : 2100-2130, the basis difference is 09: 85, the base difference is 90, the transaction is under 7: 2085-2110, the basis difference is 09: 65.
|
Area |
2023/5/30 |
2023/5/29 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2069.17 |
2067.88 |
1.29 |
|
Northwest |
1900-2050 |
1900-2020 |
0/30 |
|
North China |
2010-2100 |
2010-2130 |
0/-30 |
|
East China |
2155-2290 |
2155-2230 |
0/60 |
|
South China |
2080-2200 |
2100-2220 |
-20/-20 |
|
Southwest |
2060-2300 |
2170-2300 |
-110/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2260-2600 |
2260-2600 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2110-2260 |
2140-2260 |
-30/0 |
|
Central China |
2080-2250 |
2110-2250 |
-30/0 |
Future forecast: coal prices continue to fall in the near future, cost-end support is weak, a large plant in Ningxia is restarted, supply is expected to increase in the field, methanol is traditionally downstream in the off-season of consumption, and the profit situation of downstream products is not significantly improved. It is difficult to boost demand, the marginal change of methanol supply and demand is limited, and the wait-and-see mood of the industry is strong. At present, the macro mood of methanol is poor, the fundamentals are difficult to improve, and the market pessimism is gradually rising. It is expected that methanol market prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and pay close attention to crude oil, coal prices and downstream demand in the later stage.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Inner Mongolia Shenhua Bayannur |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/4/26 |
2023 / end of May |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Jiuding Chemical Industry |
10 |
Coal |
2023/4/20 |
2023/5/15 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Northwest Inner Mongolia Energy |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/23 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Guanghui, Xinjiang |
120 |
Coal |
2023/5/9 |
To be determined |
Stop the car. |
|
Shaanxi Weihua |
60 |
Coal |
2023/5/3 |
2023/5/28 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Ningxia Baofeng Phase III |
240 |
Coal |
2023/5/8 |
2023/5/30 |
Restarted |
|
Gansu Huating |
60 |
Coal |
2023/5/11 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
The second phase of Shandong League |
25 |
Coal |
2023/5/1 |
2023 / end of May |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi Jinfeng Wenxi |
5 |
Coal |
2023/5/10 |
2023 / 29 May |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Gansu Liuhua |
10 |
Coal |
2023/4/11 |
To be determined |
Stop the car. |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2022/3/26 |
2023/5/9 |
The device has not been restarted yet |
|
Xinjiang Tianye Phase II |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/15 |
2023 / mid-June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Xinjiang new industry |
50 |
Coal |
2023/5/22 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
The second phase of China Sea Chemistry |
80 |
Natural gas |
2023/5/11 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Linyi, Anhui Province |
20 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/23 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Coalification of Yulin (Kaiyue) |
70 |
Coal |
2023/6/8 |
2023 / end of June |
Planned maintenance |
|
Gansu Huating |
60 |
Coal |
2023/5/11 |
2023/6/4 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Xinjiang Yankuang |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/27 |
2023/6/20 |
Parking maintenance |