[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (May 2023)
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May 31, 2023, 3:44 PM Analysis of rubber market price
dry rubber
In May, China's natural rubber spot market maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. The opening of China's foreign production areas is basically on the right track. China's production areas have begun to increase quantities one after another. The support of raw materials is weakening expectations. On the demand side, foreign trade order volume supports, and tire start-ups have rebounded. However, terminal demand is approaching the seasonal off-season in the Chinese market. Tire factory finished product inventories are under accumulated pressure, and China's dark rubber inventories are still in a narrow accumulation trend. Supply pressure continues to increase. The current situation of oversupply restricts the upward momentum of rubber prices, and the trend of natural rubber remains volatile.
natural latex
In May, the price of China's natural latex market was firm and did not continue to decline. In terms of imports, the trend of internal and external market inversion was difficult to change. Traders were less willing to replenish goods. Imported rubber arrived in ports. China's self-produced supply was limited. Some state-owned enterprises had switched to production of whole milk, and the supply of concentrated milk declined. From the perspective of supply ports, spot at ports decreased, and the shipping pressure on traders declined, which in turn supported the relatively strong quotation. However, actual downstream demand continued to weaken, making it difficult to support a rebound in prices. Then, the decline stopped in May but did not rebound.
Market outlook forecast:
In January and June, global natural rubber production areas continued to increase, and the increase in raw material supply is expected to strengthen;
In February and June, tire capacity utilization data fell at a high level, and downstream demand for concentrated milk was weak;
March and June, the social inventory of Tianjiao or the turning point of storage and removal.
4. Fermentation of financial risks in overseas banks and China's macroeconomic data.
Table 1 International market
|
products |
May 2023 |
April 2023 |
from the previous month |
May 2022 |
compared with last year |
remarks |
|
|
dry rubber |
Taibiao |
1418.23 |
1435.60 |
-1.21% |
1705.00 |
-16.82% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Taihun |
1418.23 |
1435.60 |
-1.21% |
1705.00 |
-16.82% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
RSS3 |
1623.23 |
1606.20 |
1.06% |
2158.55 |
-24.80% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
natural latex |
Thai Barrel |
1167.42 |
1209.05 |
-3.44% |
2109.35 |
-44.66% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Thailand Bulk |
1047.42 |
1089.05 |
-3.82% |
1513.23 |
-30.78% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
Vietnam |
947.68 |
970.29 |
-2.33% |
1345.65 |
-29.57% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Table 2 Chinese market
|
products |
market |
varieties |
May 2023 |
April 2023 |
from the previous month |
May 2022 |
compared with last year |
remarks |
|
dry rubber |
Shandong market |
Thai mixed (spot) |
10642.26 |
10643.33 |
-0.01% |
12556.45 |
-15.24% |
Yuan/ton |
|
Thai mixed (cargo) |
10681.94 |
10684.67 |
-0.03% |
12638.71 |
-15.48% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Taibiao |
1373.87 |
1375.67 |
-0.13% |
1657.42 |
-17.11% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
Taihun |
1359.35 |
1371.50 |
-0.89% |
1656.13 |
-17.92% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
RSS3 |
1548.39 |
1524.00 |
1.60% |
2046.13 |
-24.33% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
full latex |
11661.29 |
11375.00 |
2.52% |
12741.94 |
-8.48% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
3L |
11436.67 |
11390.00 |
0.41% |
12793.55 |
-10.61% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
natural latex |
Ningbo market |
Taihuatong |
10283.87 |
10375.00 |
-0.88% |
-- |
-- |
Yuan/ton |
|
Thai yellow bag |
9082.26 |
9181.67 |
-1.08% |
13856.52 |
-34.45% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Thai non-yellow package |
8975.81 |
9065.00 |
-0.98% |
13386.11 |
-32.95% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
domestic |
8366.13 |
8436.67 |
-0.84% |
13105.88 |
-36.17% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Vietnam |
8469.35 |
8679.31 |
-2.42% |
13122.22 |
-35.46% |
Yuan/ton |