Gasoline Special Issue-20230601
114,166 
June 1, 2023, 5:02 PM
Gasoline Special issue-20230601 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20230525 |
71.83 |
76.26 |
75.78 |
76.64 |
529.6 |
-4.43 |
-0.38 |
|
20230531 |
68.09 |
72.66 |
74.07 |
71.71 |
509.4 |
-4.57 |
0.95 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
-5.21% |
-4.72% |
-2.26% |
-6.43% |
-3.81% |
3.16% |
-350.00% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
The wholesale price of gasoline in China fluctuated up and down this week (20230525-20230601), with increases of 70-150 yuan per ton in the northwest and northeast regions. Gasoline prices in North China, South China and Southwest China have been reduced by 30-50 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in central and eastern China are stable for the time being. The ex-factory prices of georefining have been adjusted downwards, among which the prices of gasoline in Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Northwest China have been reduced by a range of 30-150 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in Northeast China remain stable for the time being. The main factors of the gasoline market this week: 1. In terms of international crude oil, OPEC+ sends different signals and whether the US debt problem can be solved affects the mentality of investors in the market, and international oil prices fluctuate downward. 2. there is no favorable factor guidance on the demand side, only rigid demand procurement downstream, limited market operation, and a strong wait-and-see mood. 3. At the end of the month, the main units and local refineries enter the settlement stage, and the delivery speed is slow. compared with the stalemate 4, the price adjustment of refined oil products was realized within a week, and the prices of Chinese gasoline and diesel oil (standard products, the same below) increased by 100 yuan and 95 yuan per ton respectively. Overall, the buying and selling atmosphere in the gasoline market this week is better than last week.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of May 25, China's gasoline price index was 8750.48, down 6.45, or 0.07%, from last week. The gasoline price index was 9038.59, down 13.34, or 0.15% from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 288.11.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8600-9050 |
8570-9000 |
-30/-50 |
-0.35%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
8800-9200 |
8770-9230 |
-30/30 |
-0.34%/0.33% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8800-9200 |
8750-9150 |
-50/-50 |
-0.57%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9000-9500 |
8950-9450 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.53% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8650-9000 |
8650-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9200 |
8800-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8600-9000 |
8600-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8850-9180 |
8850-9180 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8650-9470 |
8650-9580 |
0/110 |
0.00%/1.16% |
|
95# |
8900-10030 |
8900-10140 |
0/110 |
0.00%/1.10% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8950-9200 |
8800-9150 |
-150/-50 |
-1.68%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9100-9650 |
9100-9600 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.52% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8480-8700 |
8520-8800 |
40/100 |
0.47%/1.15% |
|
95# |
8830-9150 |
8900-9300 |
70/150 |
0.79%/1.64% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8290-8600 |
8240-8550 |
-50/-50 |
-0.60%/-0.58% |
|
95# |
8400-8800 |
8350-8750 |
-50/-50 |
-0.60%/-0.57% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8300-8420 |
8300-8340 |
0/-80 |
0.00%/-0.95% |
|
95# |
8400-8520 |
8400-8440 |
0/-80 |
0.00%/-0.94% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8650-8650 |
-50/-50 |
-0.57%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8850-8850 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.56% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8390-8430 |
8310-8400 |
-80/-30 |
-0.95%/-0.36% |
|
95# |
8540-8580 |
8460-8550 |
-80/-30 |
-0.94%/-0.35% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8450-8700 |
8300-8700 |
-150/0 |
-1.78%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8650-8900 |
8450-8900 |
-200/0 |
-2.31%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8550-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8750-8750 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8600-8700 |
8750-8800 |
150/100 |
1.74%/1.15% |
|
95# |
9050-9150 |
9050-9300 |
0/150 |
0.00%/1.64% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8540-8650 |
8520-8650 |
-20/0 |
-0.23%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8830-8950 |
8900-8950 |
70/0 |
0.79%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8650-8650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8600-8800 |
8550-8700 |
-50/-100 |
-0.58%/-1.14% |
|
95# |
8800-9000 |
8750-8900 |
-50/-100 |
-0.57%/-1.11% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
9000-9000 |
8850-8900 |
-150/-100 |
-1.67%/-1.11% |
|
95# |
9180-9350 |
9030-9250 |
-150/-100 |
-1.63%/-1.07% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8750-8750 |
8750-8800 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.57% |
|
95# |
9000-9050 |
9000-9100 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.55% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8700-8900 |
8700-8900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9100 |
8900-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8700-8900 |
-100/-100 |
-1.14%/-1.11% |
|
95# |
9000-9200 |
8900-9100 |
-100/-100 |
-1.11%/-1.09% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8800-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9200 |
9000-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8700-8750 |
8650-8800 |
-50/50 |
-0.57%/0.57% |
|
95# |
8900-9100 |
8850-9100 |
-50/0 |
-0.56%/0.00% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8800-9350 |
8800-8850 |
0/-500 |
0.00%/-5.35% |
|
95# |
9000-9700 |
9050-9200 |
50/-500 |
0.56%/-5.15% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8750-8750 |
8600-8650 |
-150/-100 |
-1.71%/-1.14% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
8850-8850 |
-100/-100 |
-1.12%/-1.12% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
9000-9050 |
8950-8950 |
-50/-100 |
-0.56%/-1.10% |
|
95# |
9200-9250 |
9200-9250 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8550-8700 |
8470-8670 |
-80/-30 |
-0.94%/-0.34% |
|
95# |
8750-8900 |
8670-8870 |
-80/-30 |
-0.91%/-0.34% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8680-8700 |
8660-8700 |
-20/0 |
-0.23%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9100 |
8850-9100 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8790-8930 |
8750-8870 |
-40/-60 |
-0.46%/-0.67% |
|
95# |
8850-9130 |
8850-9130 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8650-8830 |
8570-8930 |
-80/100 |
-0.92%/1.13% |
|
95# |
8850-9130 |
8770-9230 |
-80/100 |
-0.90%/1.10% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8850-9200 |
8870-9150 |
20/-50 |
0.23%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9100-9500 |
9120-9450 |
20/-50 |
0.22%/-0.53% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8750-8900 |
8900-9000 |
150/100 |
1.71%/1.12% |
|
95# |
8950-9100 |
9100-9200 |
150/100 |
1.68%/1.10% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8700-8800 |
8750-8820 |
50/20 |
0.57%/0.23% |
|
95# |
8900-9070 |
8920-8970 |
20/-100 |
0.22%/-1.10% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8700-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8900-8900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9243-9243 |
9349-9349 |
106/106 |
1.15%/1.15% |
|
95# |
9766-9766 |
9878-9878 |
112/112 |
1.15%/1.15% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8650-9470 |
8800-9580 |
150/110 |
1.73%/1.16% |
|
95# |
10032-10032 |
10144-10144 |
112/112 |
1.12%/1.12% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9575-9575 |
9675-9675 |
100/100 |
1.04%/1.04% |
|
95# |
9975-9975 |
10075-10075 |
100/100 |
1.00%/1.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8700-9000 |
8700-8830 |
0/-170 |
0.00%/-1.89% |
|
95# |
8900-9340 |
8900-9340 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
8880-8880 |
8980-8980 |
100/100 |
1.13%/1.13% |
|
95# |
9280-9280 |
9380-9380 |
100/100 |
1.08%/1.08% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9020-9200 |
8920-9150 |
-100/-50 |
-1.11%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9470-9650 |
9370-9600 |
-100/-50 |
-1.06%/-0.52% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9050-9150 |
9000-9150 |
-50/0 |
-0.55%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9250-9400 |
9300-9400 |
50/0 |
0.54%/0.00% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8950-9000 |
8800-8850 |
-150/-150 |
-1.68%/-1.67% |
|
95# |
9250-9250 |
9100-9100 |
-150/-150 |
-1.62%/-1.62% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9000-9050 |
8900-8900 |
-100/-150 |
-1.11%/-1.66% |
|
95# |
9300-9350 |
9200-9200 |
-100/-150 |
-1.08%/-1.60% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8850-8950 |
8830-8850 |
-20/-100 |
-0.23%/-1.12% |
|
95# |
9100-9200 |
9100-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8550-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8750-8750 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8390-8430 |
8310-8400 |
-80/-30 |
-0.95%/-0.36% |
|
95# |
8540-8580 |
8460-8550 |
-80/-30 |
-0.94%/-0.35% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8650-8650 |
-50/-50 |
-0.57%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8850-8850 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.56% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8300-8420 |
8300-8340 |
0/-80 |
0.00%/-0.95% |
|
95# |
8400-8520 |
8400-8440 |
0/-80 |
0.00%/-0.94% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8290-8600 |
8240-8550 |
-50/-50 |
-0.60%/-0.58% |
|
95# |
8400-8800 |
8350-8750 |
-50/-50 |
-0.60%/-0.57% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 5.25 |
Price 6.1 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8200-8500 |
8100-8300 |
-100/-200 |
-1.22%/-2.35% |
|
95# |
8300-8650 |
8200-8450 |
-100/-200 |
-1.20%/-2.31% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8700-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8900-8900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8900-8900 |
8700-8700 |
-200/-200 |
-2.25%/-2.25% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, the current weak data in China and the strengthening of the US dollar, market concerns have increased, international oil prices have fallen, cost side negative guidance. There will be a meeting of the OPEC+ on Sunday and next Monday, a deadline for the US debt ceiling, or guidance for the market, but until then, investors have been relatively cautious. From the supply side, the profit of the main oil refining this week was 516.22 yuan / ton, up 31.48% from the previous month. The refining profit of Shandong local refineries was 1074.15 yuan / ton, up 3.33% from the previous month. Refinery profits are well supported, refineries may not reduce their processing load in the short term, and China's gasoline supply is OK. However, the overall turnover in the market has not improved significantly, and the demand side remains weak. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20230525-20230601) Liaoyang Petrochemical, Jinling Petrochemical and Changqing Petrochemical finished maintenance and production. The weekly operating rate of the main refinery was 78.26%, an increase of 3.06% over last week. The weekly operating rate of independent refineries was 62.9%, down 0.19% from last week, mainly because the new round of maintenance of some refineries in the southwest and northwest regions began.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.103 million tons, China's main output is 2.2123 million tons, China's independent refineries output 890700 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 922700 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.4055 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 516.22 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 1074.15 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 408 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit 38 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 336 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 11, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 8, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 9, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
September 5, 2023 |
October 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Rotation inspection |
2000 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
Early June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 20, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Coking |
120 |
May 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
350 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 2023 |
To be determined |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
June 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
May 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
June 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
July 26, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
Early May 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |