Methanol: Futures continued to rise, spot prices slowed down
114,497 
June 2, 2023, 4:59 PM On June 2, the methanol market price index was 2039.71, down 2.97 from yesterday, or 0.15% from the previous month.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on June 1:
China CFR 240,250USD / ton, Ping
European FOB 261263euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton
Us FOB 78-81 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 307-309 US dollars / ton, flat.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 1950-2050 (0), South: 1840-1850 (0), North: 1850-1900 (10), Lunan: 2120-2130 (- 30), Henan: 2080-2100 (10), Shanxi: 19702070 (0), Port: 21452165 (10)
Freight:
North Route-North Shandong 170-260 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-290 (10max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 130-190 (0max 0)
Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, the spot price fluctuates 10-40 yuan / ton, the futures market is strong and volatile, a small amount of spot rigid demand is purchased, the basis is stable, and the transaction is general; the supply side of the Chinese market is still abundant, the demand side is favorable and the support is limited, the cautious mood of the operators in the market still exists, and the market transaction atmosphere is poor. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small, with the quotation of 1840-1850 yuan / ton for the middle-south route and stable at the low end, while the quotation for the north line revolves around it. 1850-1900 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the price in some areas of the market has fallen to a relatively low level, the factory shipping pressure is large, the market demand performance is weak, and the overall transaction is mediocre. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation around 1950-2050 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the transaction situation is general. Consumer market prices down, today Lunan quotation around 2120-2130 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 30 yuan / ton, northern Shandong quoted price of 2100 yuan / ton, low-end stability, the current on-site negotiations are general, rigid demand procurement. The market price in North China has been partially reduced. Hebei quotation revolves around 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. at present, the market atmosphere is still mediocre, and the wait-and-see mood of manufacturers is strong; the quotation in Shanxi region revolves around 1970-2030 yuan / ton, the low end is stable. Market prices in the southwest region remained stable, with Yunnan and Guizhou quotations around 2100-2150 yuan / ton and Sichuan-Chongqing 2070-2280 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the cautious mood of the market operators is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.
Port market: methanol futures rose after the shock today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand procurement; paper goods unilateral part of the high sell low suction, the basis to hold steady. The price difference in exchange has narrowed. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2145-2160, basis 09: 90: 6. Deal: 2095-2160, basis: 09: 75: 6, deal: 2100-2160, basis: 09: 65: 70: 6: 2085-2165, basis: 09: 60: 65: 7 : 2080-2150, the basis difference is 09: 45, the basis difference is 09: 45, and the basis difference is 09: 40.
|
Area |
2023/6/2 |
2023/6/1 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2039.71 |
2042.68 |
-2.97 |
|
Northwest |
1840-2050 |
1840-2050 |
0/0 |
|
North China |
1970-2050 |
1970-2080 |
0/-30 |
|
East China |
2145-2260 |
2135-2240 |
10/20 |
|
South China |
2060-2200 |
2080-2200 |
-20/0 |
|
Southwest |
2070-2280 |
2070-2280 |
0/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2230-2600 |
2230-2600 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2060-2160 |
2080-2200 |
-20/-40 |
|
Central China |
2080-2250 |
2070-2250 |
10/0 |
In the future, it is predicted that there will be equipment overhaul and restart in the Chinese market in the near future, the overall supply performance of the market is abundant, and there is no favorable support on the supply side for the time being, and with the increase of the atmosphere, some traditional downstream markets will enter the off-season of consumption, and the performance of terminal demand will be poor, but considering that with the continuous reduction of methanol prices, the profits of downstream olefin enterprises can be repaired, and some of the olefin units stopped in the early stage may gradually return. During the restart of the 300000-ton plant in Yang Coal, Silbon also has a restart plan. If the device can be restarted as scheduled, there may be some support on the demand side, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage. At present, the futures market is strong and volatile in the near future, and the mentality of some operators has improved slightly, but considering the contradiction between supply and demand of methanol itself, the cautious mood of the operators in the market is still there, and the price range of methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. in the later stage, we should also pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal and the operation of the plant in the field.
Recent operation of the device:
|
Name of production enterprise |
Annual capacity; ten thousand tons |
Raw material |
Starting date of maintenance |
Maintenance end date |
Operation of the device |
|
Inner Mongolia Shenhua Bayannur |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/4/26 |
2023 / end of May |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Jiuding Chemical Industry |
10 |
Coal |
2023/4/20 |
2023/5/15 |
Normal operation |
|
Northwest Inner Mongolia Energy |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/23 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Guanghui, Xinjiang |
120 |
Coal |
2023/5/9 |
2023/5/30 |
Rebooting |
|
Shaanxi Weihua |
60 |
Coal |
2023/5/3 |
2023/5/28 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Ningxia Baofeng Phase III |
240 |
Coal |
2023/5/8 |
2023/5/30 |
Stable operation |
|
The second phase of Shandong League |
25 |
Coal |
2023/5/1 |
2023 / end of May |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi Jinfeng Wenxi |
5 |
Coal |
2023/5/10 |
2023 / 29 May |
Parking maintenance |
|
Shanxi coking |
40 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/15 |
To be determined |
Reduce negative production |
|
Gansu Liuhua |
10 |
Coal |
2023/4/11 |
To be determined |
Stop the car. |
|
Central Plains Dahua |
50 |
Coal |
2022/3/26 |
2023/5/9 |
The device has not been restarted yet |
|
Xinjiang Tianye Phase II |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/15 |
2023 / mid-June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Xinjiang new industry |
50 |
Coal |
2023/5/22 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
The second phase of China Sea Chemistry |
80 |
Natural gas |
2023/5/11 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Linyi, Anhui Province |
20 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/23 |
To be determined |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia ancient and Baitai |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/21 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Coalification of Yulin (Kaiyue) |
70 |
Coal |
2023/6/8 |
2023 / end of June |
Planned maintenance |
|
Gansu Huating |
60 |
Coal |
2023/5/11 |
2023/6/4 |
Restart |
|
Xinjiang Yankuang |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/27 |
2023/6/20 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Northwest energy |
30 |
Coal |
2023/5/23 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |
|
Inner Mongolia Shenhua Mengxi |
10 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/16 |
2023/6/10 |
Parking maintenance |
|
Anhui carbon Xin |
50 |
Coke oven gas |
2023/5/4 |
2023 / June |
Parking maintenance |