In April 2023, Thailand exported 187,000 tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) and 47,000 tons of concentrated milk, a year-on-year decrease of 49.37%. 1-4 According to monthly cumulative data, Thailand exported 296,500 tons of concentrated milk, a year-on-year decrease of 26.93%. Thailand's concentrated milk exports fell significantly.

1.  Seasonal low-production raw materials supply fell short of expectations

Thailand's producing areas are in a seasonally low production period in April, and raw material output is at a low level. In late April, Thailand's main producing areas suffered from high temperatures and drought problems, and the amount of raw materials fell short of expectations. Affected by seasonal conditions, exports from Thailand's producing areas are basically declining in April every year.

2. Weak demand in the glove industry, global consumption of concentrated milk declines

With the normalization of public health and safety incidents, demand for disposable gloves has declined, and demand for concentrated milk in Malaysia has also slipped to a low level. For China, the glove industry is basically in a similar situation. Most medical practitioners have dropped from full-capacity operations during the epidemic to low levels now, and China's demand has also declined. Lower demand also affects the willingness of processing plants to start operations to a certain extent.

3. China and China's external market are obviously upside down, traders 'replenishment demand is weak

In April, Thailand exported 14,900 tons of latex to China, a month-on-month decrease of 56.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.24%. From the data point of view, the same month-on-month decline, but the month-on-month decline exceeded 50%, which is also a figure for comparing output expectations. In fact, judging from this year's downstream demand, both gloves and foaming are in a weak state. Orders for finished products fall short of expectations, and on-demand purchasing sentiment is heating up, making it more difficult to deliver goods at trading ports. On the other hand, since the end of January, internal and external markets have remained upside down, which has dragged traders 'replenishment sentiment to a significant decline. The dual effect has also led to a significant decline in Thailand's exports to China.

4. Thailand's concentrated milk exports are expected to decline in May

It is expected that Thailand's concentrated milk exports will be difficult to change their downward trend in May 2023. On the one hand, the drought problem in the main producing areas in northern Thailand in May once again led to a delay in opening and harvesting, which blocked Thailand's supply supply. China's producing areas were in the stage of continuous increase. The domestic self-produced supply increased, further suppressing import demand. Another reason is that downstream demand has not shown a significant growth point for the time being. The start-up of different types of processing plants has also declined. The consumption capacity of concentrated milk has gradually weakened, further suppressing traders 'sentiment to replenish stocks.