[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (June 2023)
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July 6, 2023, 4:58 PM dry rubber
In June, China's natural rubber spot market generally showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with prices adjusted slightly at the beginning and end of the month. During the month, as the supply side gradually entered the stage of increasing volume, China's natural rubber stocks remained high, and inventory pressure still existed. The shipping pressure of downstream tire companies remained unchanged. Finished product stocks were abundant. The enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials was average, and it was difficult for fundamentals to provide obvious drivers. Rubber prices fluctuated mainly due to news and macro factors. In June, rubber prices generally showed a trend of repeated fluctuations and adjustments.
natural latex
In June, China's natural latex market prices rose within a narrow range. This month, there was not much spot arrival in Hong Kong from China's sales areas, and the available spot was tight. In addition, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar during the month, traders 'import costs rose, and there was little enthusiasm for replenishing goods. There was a strong sentiment of supporting prices and reluctance to sell on the market, which supported market offers. Orders for finished products from downstream latex products companies have been sluggish, entering the off-season of demand ahead of previous years, and the high temperature in summer has further suppressed production. In addition, domestic and overseas production areas are expected to have a strong supply of raw materials in the next month, making their bearish sentiment difficult to ease. There is no significant improvement in demand ports in the short term, and there is limited room for growth in suppressed concentrated milk.
Market outlook forecast:
In January and July, global natural rubber production areas continued to increase, and the increase in raw material supply is expected to strengthen;
In February and July, tire capacity utilization rate data, downstream tire companies started to weaken, and downstream demand for concentrated milk was weak;
In March and July, whether Qingdao's inventory will break through the accumulated state will show an inflection point for destocking.
4. Pay attention to China's macro policies and news trends.
Table 1 International market
|
products |
June 2023 |
May 2023 |
from the previous month |
June 2022 |
compared with last year |
remarks |
|
|
dry rubber |
Taibiao |
1379.83 |
1418.23 |
-2.71% |
1719.50 |
-19.75% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Taihun |
1379.83 |
1418.23 |
-2.71% |
1719.50 |
-19.75% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
RSS3 |
1614.33 |
1623.23 |
-0.55% |
2173.17 |
-25.72% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
natural latex |
Thai Barrel |
1140.00 |
1167.42 |
-2.35% |
1535.33 |
-25.75% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Thailand Bulk |
1020.00 |
1047.42 |
-2.62% |
1401.00 |
-27.19% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
Vietnam |
911.33 |
947.68 |
-3.84% |
1258.50 |
-27.59% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Table 2 Chinese market
|
products |
market |
varieties |
May 2023 |
May 2023 |
from the previous month |
June 2022 |
compared with last year |
remarks |
|
dry rubber |
Shandong market |
Thai mixed (spot) |
10652.58 |
10642.26 |
0.10% |
12701.67 |
-16.13% |
Yuan/ton |
|
Thai mixed (cargo) |
10702.58 |
10681.94 |
0.19% |
12766.67 |
-16.17% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Taibiao |
1375.81 |
1373.87 |
0.14% |
1703.50 |
-19.24% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
Taihun |
1328.39 |
1359.35 |
-2.28% |
1677.67 |
-20.82% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
RSS3 |
1569.68 |
1548.39 |
1.38% |
2061.67 |
-23.86% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
full latex |
10493.82 |
11661.29 |
-10.01% |
12851.67 |
-18.35% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
3L |
11537.10 |
11436.67 |
0.88% |
12911.67 |
-10.65% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
natural latex |
Ningbo market |
Taihuatong |
10311.67 |
10283.87 |
0.27% |
-- |
-- |
Yuan/ton |
|
Thai yellow bag |
9251.61 |
9082.26 |
1.86% |
12170.00 |
-23.98% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Thai non-yellow package |
9159.68 |
8975.81 |
2.05% |
13333.33 |
-31.30% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
domestic |
8464.52 |
8366.13 |
1.18% |
12294.44 |
-31.15% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Vietnam |
8471.67 |
8469.35 |
0.03% |
11480.95 |
-26.21% |
Yuan/ton |