[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (July 2023)
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July 31, 2023, 3:56 PM Analysis of rubber market price
dry rubber
In July, China's natural rubber spot market overall showed a relatively stable state, with small fluctuations during the month, and prices adjusted slightly at the beginning and end of the month. China's foreign producing areas have successively entered the stage of increasing new rubber. The price of raw materials is expected to fall strongly, and overseas import sources are increasing seasonally. China's total natural rubber stocks are still climbing, which has suppressed rubber prices. The terminal market is weak and stable in summer, domestic shipments are slow, and purchasing raw materials on bargain hunting makes it difficult to significantly boost rubber prices.
natural latex
In July, China's natural latex market prices remained basically stable. In July, raw materials in the world's major producing areas entered a seasonal increase in production. The supply increase is expected to be obvious. Thailand's producing areas will increase slowly, but the total output will be higher than that in June. Factory export pressure will increase. The price difference between the inside and outside of Thailand's imported rubber is still upside down., but the upside down rate has been revised back, which will stimulate traders 'replenishment sentiment to a certain extent. However, as of now, there has been no significant improvement, and the overall trading atmosphere is still in a cold state.
Market outlook forecast:
In January and August, global natural rubber production will usher in a new wave of increase, and the pressure on raw material supply will become more and more obvious;
There was a lack of bright spots in downstream demand in February and August, especially the export and domestic market fell short of expectations, and the demand gap for raw materials was limited;
In March and August, whether Qingdao's inventory will break through the accumulated state will show an inflection point for destocking.
4. Pay attention to China's macro policies and news trends.
Table 1 International market
|
products |
July 2023 |
June 2023 |
from the previous month |
June 2022 |
compared with last year |
remarks |
|
|
dry rubber |
Taibiao |
1350.00 |
1379.83 |
-2.16% |
1642.90 |
-17.83% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Taihun |
1350.00 |
1379.83 |
-2.16% |
1642.90 |
-17.83% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
RSS3 |
1545.67 |
1614.33 |
-4.25% |
1974.84 |
-21.73% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
natural latex |
Thai Barrel |
1104.67 |
1140.00 |
-3.10% |
1323.87 |
-16.56% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Thailand Bulk |
984.67 |
1020.00 |
-3.46% |
1203.87 |
-18.21% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
Vietnam |
865.83 |
911.33 |
-4.99% |
1088.33 |
-20.44% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Table 2 Chinese market
|
products |
market |
varieties |
July 2023 |
June 2023 |
from the previous month |
July 2022 |
compared with last year |
remarks |
|
dry rubber |
Shandong market |
Thai mixed (spot) |
10557.10 |
10652.58 |
-0.90% |
12145.16 |
-13.08% |
Yuan/ton |
|
Thai mixed (cargo) |
10594.52 |
10702.58 |
-1.01% |
12209.68 |
-13.23% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Taibiao |
1339.03 |
1375.81 |
-2.67% |
1632.42 |
-17.97% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
Taihun |
1300.81 |
1328.39 |
-2.08% |
1594.84 |
-18.44% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
RSS3 |
1520.65 |
1569.68 |
-3.12% |
1959.35 |
-22.39% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
full latex |
12083.87 |
10493.82 |
15.15% |
12267.74 |
-1.50% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
3L |
11472.58 |
11537.10 |
-0.56% |
12435.48 |
-7.74% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
natural latex |
Ningbo market |
Taihuatong |
10306.45 |
10311.67 |
-0.05% |
-- |
-- |
Yuan/ton |
|
Thai yellow bag |
9109.68 |
9251.61 |
-1.53% |
10547.83 |
-13.63% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Thai non-yellow package |
9014.52 |
9159.68 |
-1.58% |
10516.13 |
-14.28% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
domestic |
8014.52 |
8464.52 |
-5.32% |
9246.88 |
-13.33% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Vietnam |
8140.32 |
8471.67 |
-3.91% |
9387.10 |
-13.28% |
Yuan/ton |