[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (August 4)
120,017 
August 4, 2023, 4:29 PM Analysis of natural rubber market price on August 4
index
On August 4, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1325/ton, which was stable from the previous trading day.
market analysis
futures market
|
date |
Previous period: RU Futures |
||||||
|
main contract |
closing price |
||||||
|
opening price |
Low-end price |
High-end price |
closing price |
RU01 |
RU05 |
RU09 |
|
|
August 4 |
12015 |
11975 |
12045 |
11990 |
12930 |
12945 |
11990 |
|
August 3 |
12210 |
11955 |
12245 |
11975 |
12925 |
12920 |
11975 |
|
rise and fall |
-195 |
20 |
-200 |
15 |
5 |
25 |
15 |
|
date |
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price) |
|||
|
NR main force |
NR01 |
NR05 |
NR09 |
|
|
August 4 |
9385 |
9510 |
9700 |
9340 |
|
August 3 |
9405 |
9520 |
9700 |
9370 |
|
rise and fall |
-20 |
-10 |
0 |
-30 |
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall and weather in foreign production areas have eased, and raw materials are in a state of high volume, driving raw material prices to fluctuate within a narrow range.
China: Yunnan's production areas in Hainan are basically in a stage of steady increase in production. Among them, Yunnan's production areas have occasionally experienced rainfall recently, but the overall impact is small. Coupled with this, supply in Hainan's production areas has also gradually returned to normal, and raw material prices have fallen within a narrow range.
|
price type |
August 3 |
August 4 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
raw material prices |
Thailand |
glue |
41 |
41 |
0 |
baht/kg |
|
cup glue |
37.7 |
37.3 |
-0.4 |
baht/kg |
||
|
Yunnan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
10700 |
10700 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
rubber block |
9500 |
9500 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Hainan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
10500 |
10500 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory) |
10500 |
10500 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
Demand side: Semi-steel tire sample companies are gradually scheduling snow tires domestically, with many models, and mold replacement affects the release of overall production capacity. Currently, the company's production schedule still maintains a high operating state, and shipments at the beginning of the month are relatively smooth, and some companies have intensified the shortage of domestic sales. The overall shipment performance of all steel tires at the beginning of the month was acceptable, and the overall inventory fell slightly.
Futures spot price list
|
price type |
August 3 |
August 4 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
price of finished products |
Shandong |
China All Latex |
11900 |
11900 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 standard glue |
1325 |
1325 |
0 |
us dollars/ton |
|
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
10490 |
10490 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Hainan |
8050 |
8050 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk |
9000 |
9000 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
the current price difference |
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
1485 |
1500 |
15 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Main force-China All Latex |
75 |
90 |
15 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
relevant exchange rate |
us dollar against the RMB |
7.2076 |
7.1976 |
-0.01 |
Yuan |
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB |
0.2158 |
0.2143 |
-0.0015 |
Yuan |
||
market outlook
At this stage, the supply side of China's foreign producing areas is in a steady increase in volume, and raw material prices have declined to varying degrees. However, the low price of finished products has led to a relative loss in the processing profits of overseas processing plants, which has affected the pace of procurement and shipment of processing plants to a certain extent. Rubber prices still have downward expectations. The actual purchasing intensity in the terminal demand market has not improved significantly, and the pressure on high inventories in China is difficult to alleviate. Apart from short-term weather and other news hype, the rubber market has not yet shown obvious support. Beware of falling rubber prices.