[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (September 5)
90,210 
September 5, 2023, 4:38 PM Analysis of natural rubber market price on September 5
index
On September 5, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1450/ton, down US$10/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.68%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date |
Previous period: RU Futures |
||||||
|
main contract |
closing price |
||||||
|
opening price |
Low-end price |
High-end price |
closing price |
RU01 |
RU05 |
RU09 |
|
|
September 5 |
14070 |
13985 |
14290 |
14130 |
14130 |
14075 |
12785 |
|
September 4 |
14280 |
13965 |
14735 |
14100 |
14100 |
14000 |
12800 |
|
rise and fall |
-210 |
20 |
-445 |
30 |
30 |
75 |
-15 |
|
date |
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price) |
|||
|
NR main force |
NR01 |
NR05 |
NR09 |
|
|
September 5 |
10450 |
10475 |
10450 |
10550 |
|
September 4 |
10455 |
10470 |
10400 |
10550 |
|
rise and fall |
-5 |
5 |
50 |
0 |
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: There are still disturbances in rainfall and weather in foreign production areas, the volume of raw materials has been blocked, and raw material prices have increased within a narrow range.
China: Affected by typhoons, rainfall and weather have increased, and rubber tapping work has been blocked. Driven by futures, the purchasing sentiment of processing plants has warmed up, pushing up raw material prices significantly higher. Rainfall in Yunnan's production areas eased, but the purchasing sentiment of dry rubber factories was high, driving up raw material prices.
|
price type |
September 4 |
September 5 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
raw material prices |
Thailand |
glue |
45 |
45.3 |
0.3 |
baht/kg |
|
cup glue |
41.35 |
41.45 |
0.1 |
baht/kg |
||
|
Yunnan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
11700 |
11700 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
rubber block |
9900 |
9900 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Hainan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
12400 |
12500 |
100 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory) |
12400 |
12500 |
100 |
Yuan/ton |
||
On the demand side: Supported by foreign trade orders for all steel tires and semi-steel tires, the starting level of enterprises continues to be high. The foreign trade order volume of individual all-steel tires declined, domestic sales scheduling increased, and the overall shortage phenomenon was alleviated. The price policy at the beginning of the month continued for the previous month, with some fluctuations slightly.
Futures spot price list
|
price type |
September 4 |
September 5 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
price of finished products |
Shandong |
China All Latex |
13117 |
12917 |
-200 |
Yuan/ton |
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 standard glue |
1460 |
1450 |
-10 |
us dollars/ton |
|
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
11470 |
11450 |
-20 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Hainan |
9500 |
9400 |
-100 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk |
10350 |
10250 |
-100 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
the current price difference |
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
2630 |
2680 |
50 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Main force-China All Latex |
983 |
1213 |
230 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
relevant exchange rate |
us dollar against the RMB |
7.2803 |
7.3073 |
0.027 |
Yuan |
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB |
0.2131 |
0.2123 |
-0.0008 |
Yuan |
||
market outlook
In September, the world's main rubber producing areas are in the peak season for rubber tapping, and output is expected to rebound further month-on-month. However, short-term rainfall has affected the development of rubber tapping work and limited raw material output. In late September, the downstream may usher in a traditional peak season, and demand will improve month-on-month. Coupled with the recent frequent police introduction of a car boost policy in China, it is expected to increase China's demand for self-packaging and replacement of automobiles. Recently, the supply of standard rubber and mixed rubber to Hong Kong has remained low. Natural rubber stocks in Qingdao Port have continued to be slightly removed from warehouses. The decline in inventories has stimulated the spot price of Thai mixed rubber to rise strongly. Recently, the market's long-term sentiment has remained strong. The wait-and-see sentiment in spot trade and terminal procurement has warmed up. Buyers have been more wait-and-see and cautious replenishment, and rubber prices have mainly fluctuated in the short-term range.