"A few words" talk about thick breasts

After a long period of silence in the second quarter, this year's thick milk market ushered in a gratifying rise on the eve of "Golden Autumn September". The quotation for Thailand's ordinary bulk imports in the Zhejiang market rose from 9050 yuan / ton in mid-August to 10200 yuan / ton in early September. The spot quotation maintained a rising trend for nearly a month, and the quotation rose 1150 yuan / ton, or 12.83%, during the second period. For this year's weak demand for thick milk, the rise led to an improvement in the overall market atmosphere. However, the rise of thick milk in mid-September seems to have come to an end. The spot market quotation for nearly a week has basically remained relatively stable, while the difference between the actual transaction price and the quotation has also shown signs of wide expansion. The difference between actual transactions and quotations in some areas has reached 400-500 yuan / ton. Many people began to wonder about the thick milk market. Is the price still rising? Is the supply really small? What's the need? Then let's have a brief chat with you about the recent tangled supply and demand of thick milk.

Supply: there is support for the cost of frequent rainfall in non-producing areas of China.

Recently, there have been varying degrees of rainfall in both Thailand and China, among which Thailand has an impact not only on rainfall, but also on the purchase of raw materials at a high premium in order to make up for the previous blank order in some processing plants. The actual purchase price of cup gum is 44.5 baht / kg, which also forms an obvious support for the price of raw materials.

Hainan, as the main producing area of concentrated milk in China, the impact of rain weather seems to be more obvious. according to the seasonality of natural rubber production, Hainan should be in the stage of vigorous production at present. In the same period of previous years, the overall output of glue raw materials can basically be maintained at more than 6000 tons, but recently, the daily rubber output of Hainan is only about 2000-4000 tons, and the overall output of raw materials has decreased significantly. Furthermore, in order to meet the start of the processing plant, the situation of grabbing raw materials between regions and factories has also begun to highlight. I have heard that the actual glue collection price has been maintained at about 13200 yuan / ton recently. According to the actual glue collection price, it does bring support to the finished products of thick milk from the cost end. However, some concentrated dairy factories said that at present, there are few raw materials and high prices, but the actual transaction prices and demand do not match the high raw material prices, affecting the purchasing mood in the short term.

Demand: market transactions do improve, but most of them are exploratory purchases & nbsp

Judging from the current downstream start-up, the overall start-up is relatively stable, and the start-up of a few enterprises has improved slightly, but it is also relatively limited. Among them, take foaming as an example, up to now, the start-up of the foaming plant is still in a state of almost 40%. After entering the traditional "Golden Nine Silver 10", the overall start-up situation has not improved as scheduled. As far as its raw material inventory is concerned, in the case of no obvious improvement in the start-up and delivery of goods, the overall stock of the processing plant is also relatively less, but after the market price has changed from an upward trend to a stable horizontal market, the market transaction and inquiry situation have shown signs of improvement, but in fact, it is more understood that its procurement replenishment is more tentative procurement replenishment, and does not reach the state of on-demand procurement, and downstream counter-offer underpricing occurs. Therefore, there are indeed transactions in the market, but the transaction is less, and the actual transaction is larger than the quotation, the price difference is relatively large.

Conclusion: most of the supply support is caused by weather disturbance and the actual demand is difficult to change.

At present, the supply side is more due to weather disturbances, the output of raw materials is less, supporting the high prices of raw materials, but we also know that the weather improves after frequent rainfall, the overall rhythm of raw materials will also improve, and according to the seasonal output of natural rubber, the amount of raw materials is expected to strengthen in the later period, so the support on the cost side may be slightly insufficient. This year, the downstream demand of thick milk has been in a weak state, and some downstream products have also begun to explore new integration changes, but in the absence of obvious growth points, the downstream demand is difficult to change its weakness. To sum up, the follow-up room for thick milk spot prices is also relatively limited. If the downstream maintains a tentative replenishment rhythm for a long time, beware of a decline in spot prices, but the low support of 9000 yuan / ton of imported Thai bags is also relatively strong. Don't panic too much.