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September 18, 2023, 4:36 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on September 18
index
On September 18, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1490/ton, down US$10/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.67%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date
|
Previous period: RU Futures
|
|
main contract
|
closing price
|
|
opening price
|
Low-end price
|
High-end price
|
closing price
|
RU01
|
RU05
|
RU09
|
|
September 18
|
14455
|
14165
|
14455
|
14285
|
14285
|
14205
|
14180
|
|
September 15
|
14500
|
14335
|
14535
|
14455
|
14455
|
14330
|
12700
|
|
rise and fall
|
-45
|
-170
|
-80
|
-170
|
-170
|
-125
|
1480
|
|
date
|
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price)
|
|
NR main force
|
NR01
|
NR05
|
NR09
|
|
September 18
|
10845
|
10755
|
10760
|
10755
|
|
September 15
|
10945
|
10860
|
10760
|
10640
|
|
rise and fall
|
-100
|
-105
|
0
|
115
|
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: There are still disturbances in rainfall and weather in foreign production areas, the volume of raw materials has been blocked, and raw material prices have increased within a narrow range.
China: Rainy weather in Hainan's production area still affects normal rubber tapping operations, supporting raw material prices to remain firm at high levels. Rainfall in Yunnan's production areas has eased, and raw material prices have remained relatively stable.
|
price type
|
September 15
|
September 18
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
raw material prices
|
Thailand
|
glue
|
47.6
|
48
|
0.4
|
baht/kg
|
|
cup glue
|
42.7
|
43.05
|
0.35
|
baht/kg
|
|
Yunnan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
11600
|
11600
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
rubber block
|
9700
|
9700
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Hainan
|
Glue (into the dry glue factory)
|
12500
|
12400
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)
|
12500
|
12400
|
-100
|
Yuan/ton
|
On the demand side: Tire production companies have maintained their production scheduling efforts, and no production reduction has been found yet. Enterprise specifications have been adjusted, and start-up stocks have fluctuated slightly. Under the recent news of price increases, shipments and inventories among companies have been differentiated to a certain extent. Some companies mainly focus on low-priced products, shipments have accelerated significantly compared with the previous period. In addition, shipments of some companies have slowed down and inventories have slowly increased. Overall, this price increase has limited impact on corporate shipments.
Futures spot price list
|
price type
|
September 15
|
September 18
|
rise and fall
|
units
|
|
price of finished products
|
Shandong
|
China All Latex
|
13050
|
13017
|
-33
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 standard glue
|
1500
|
1490
|
-10
|
us dollars/ton
|
|
Qingdao
|
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
11720
|
11680
|
-40
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Hainan
|
9300
|
9400
|
100
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Ningbo
|
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk
|
10200
|
10200
|
0
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
the current price difference
|
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue
|
2735
|
2605
|
-130
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
Main force-China All Latex
|
1405
|
1268
|
-137
|
Yuan/ton
|
|
relevant exchange rate
|
us dollar against the RMB
|
7.2783
|
7.3053
|
0.027
|
Yuan
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB
|
0.2091
|
0.2105
|
0.0014
|
Yuan
|
market outlook
Today, the rubber market fell within a narrow range, leaning towards a normal correction after the rise stimulated by the good news last week, and relatively returning to fundamental logic. Various production areas are still facing varying degrees of rainfall. The narrow rise in raw material prices has supported the cost side. Regarding the continued rise in raw material costs, tire companies have also begun to issue price increases one after another. China's ports and port inventories and social inventories still maintain a small amount of de-warehousing, and the delivery situation is still good. Some cargo holders said that market transactions have improved since the end of last week, which in turn stimulated an upward trend in prices. Overall, supply and demand in the short term are basically Faced with the still support for rubber prices, the probability of a sharp fall in rubber prices is small.
