Methanol: Futures fluctuated and fell, and the market trading atmosphere was weak

On September 25th, the market price index of methanol was 2317.04, which was 10.23 lower than that of the previous working day and 0.44% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 22:

China CFR 286-294USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 250.75-251.75 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 77-79 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 354.5-355.5 US dollars / ton, up 7 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2270-2300 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2080-2210 (- 20), Lunan: & nbsp;2450 (- 10), Henan: & nbsp;2350-2385 (0), Shanxi: 2250-2320 (- 30), Port: & nbsp;2475-2520 (- 50)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-320 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-340 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to be weak, the futures market fluctuates downward, quotations in some parts of the Chinese market are lowered, the supply side is relatively abundant, the stock mood under the high inventory downstream is general, and the wait-and-see mood of the market is strong. The overall turnover of the market is average. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with the northern line quoted at 2080-2210 yuan / ton and the low end down by 20 yuan / ton, of which Shaanxi Changqing methanol is quoted this week: 2300 yuan / ton for large orders and 2310 yuan / ton for small orders. The 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is in normal operation, the prices of some enterprises in the field continue to decline, the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak, and the transaction is average. Consumer market prices are mixed, with southern Shandong 2450 yuan / ton, low-end down 10 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2420-2430 yuan / ton, and low-end up 10 yuan / ton. at present, the mindset of market operators is strong, and more on-demand purchases are made downstream. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2250-2320 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end and rigid demand in the lower reaches. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2490-2560 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2380-2480 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is dominant, the mood of receiving goods downstream is general, and the rigid demand is mainly buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated lower today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand, unilateral low inquiry, arbitrage-based delivery, the basis is strong; the exchange price difference has widened in recent months, and the overall transaction throughout the day is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 9 lower deal: 2475-2520, base difference 01-15 Maximus 10 transaction 10 transaction: 2490-2530, base difference 01: 5 transaction 10 transaction price: 2520-2560, basis difference 01: 22 pound 30

11 deals: 2520-2540, with a basis difference of 01 / 36 / 40.

Future forecast: supply: part of the downstream stock is actively restocked before the festival, resulting in a reduction in inventory in some areas, but the overall stock strength is limited, coupled with the previous price continued to rise, downstream acceptance sentiment gradually weakens, although some devices are unexpectedly stopped, however, the early parking and negative reduction devices continue to resume, the Chinese market is still at a high level, and some devices are still planned to resume later, and the supply area is expected to increase. In terms of demand: the start-up performance of the terminal downstream products is different, but the overall upward trend, and the demand performance continues to improve, but with the rise of methanol prices in the previous period, the rising strength of downstream products is limited, and the profit loss of some products expands. It has a certain impact on the recovery of pre-parking devices and load changes, near the end of double-section inventory, and the downstream is still dominated by rigid demand replenishment under high inventory. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the downstream profit repair and the change of device load. At present, the cost support still exists, and both the supply and demand sides are expected to increase before the festival, but the downstream inventory is at a high level, the mood of traders to prepare goods is general, the market atmosphere is slightly deadlocked, and the mindset of on-site operators is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price range will fluctuate, and in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil and coal prices and the operation of on-site units.