[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (September 2023)

dry rubber

In September, China's natural rubber spot market maintained a narrow and stable state after rising. Rainfall has affected the development of rubber tapping work, and raw material output has been limited. In late September, the downstream may usher in a traditional peak season, and demand will improve month-on-month. Coupled with the recent introduction of frequent police in China, the boosting policy is expected to increase China's demand for self-packaging and replacement of automobiles. Recently, the supply of standard rubber and mixed rubber to Hong Kong has remained low. Natural image rubber stocks in Qingdao Port have continued to be slightly removed. The decline in inventories stimulated the spot price of Thai mixed rubber to rise strongly. After the rapid rise, the risk aversion of downstream factories warmed up on rallies, and the willingness to replenish stocks remained in demand, making it difficult to boost rubber prices. The bullish news in the Tianjiao market began to be digested one after another. Rubber prices continued to explore upwards and showed slight weakness. In the later period, they mostly maintained a narrow range of fluctuations.

natural latex

In September, the price trend of China's natural latex market maintained a narrow range of fluctuations and was relatively strong. From the cost side, the impact of rainfall and weather still exists, and there is still strong support on the cost side. However, the actual transactions in the spot market are mostly dominated by downstream buying and not buying. The actual downstream demand is still relatively weak, and the combined port's spot supply has improved in the early stage, and spot circulation in the market has increased. However, when the actual purchasing sentiment has declined, the actual transactions have become tired, and port cargo holders have adjusted their quotations within a narrow range to stimulate consumption.

Market outlook forecast:

In January and October, global natural rubber production will usher in a new wave of increase, and the pressure on raw material supply will become more and more obvious;

2. Downstream starts in October may remain high;

In March and October, Qingdao's inventory continued the trend of removing inventory, and social inventory pressure declined.

4. Pay attention to China's macro policies and news trends.