Thick milk, which has been silent for a long time, finally continues to welcome rising news during the peak season of the "Gold September and Silver Ten". The price of ordinary bulk imported from Thailand in the Zhejiang market rose from 9050 yuan/ton in mid-August to 10200 yuan/ton in early September. The upward trend of spot prices has been maintained for nearly a month. During the second period, the price rose by 1150 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.83%. After the first wave of increases in early September, concentrated milk remained at a relatively high and firm state. After the National Day holiday ended, concentrated milk once again experienced a wave of increases. Since the beginning of October, the price of ordinary bulk imports from Thailand in the Zhejiang market has remained at around 9,950 - 10,050 yuan/ton. As of mid-October, the price of concentrated milk has risen to 10600 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.66%.

As for the rise in thick milk, it is not difficult to see that these two obvious increases are closely related to futures. This year, the market quotation of thick milk and the overall fit of futures has been continuously enhanced, especially when futures have seen a significant and significant increase. In the case of heavy milk quotations and rising trends are prominent. However, this is only driven by the general trend of the general environment. The wide increase in thick milk prices has also stimulated market participants to reflect on the supply and demand of thick milk this year.

Cost aspect: Frequent rainfall and weather, reduced supply, and obvious cost support

After entering September and October, the global natural rubber production season has actually entered the seasonal peak. According to the normal production rhythm, the supply side is expected to strengthen, and the support for raw material prices is relatively weak. However, frequent rainfall and weather disturbances in other producing areas in China have affected the normal development of rubber tapping operations. Raw material prices have also begun to show a significant upward trend, and cost-side support has gradually strengthened. Moreover, downstream demand will be relatively stable this year, and the impact of speculation on the supply side will be more proactive. After the end of October, China's production areas are about to usher in the end of rubber cutting production, and supply-side support will basically remain dominant by then. Therefore, from the perspective of cost, the hype on the supply side will not decrease, and the bottom support will be relatively obvious.

Demand side: The long cycle of preparing goods in advance is shortened, and the short cycle of preparing goods with the materials is highlighted as soon as possible.

Judging from the overall situation of concentrated milk demand this year, there is no particularly obvious growth point. Basically, it has maintained a relatively stable start, and the operating rate has not changed for a long time. Relatively stable demand has also changed the cyclical changes in downstream procurement to a certain extent. According to the obvious changes in the peak season and off-season in previous years, downstream purchasers will purchase long-term goods in advance based on their actual conditions. However, the overall demand this year is relatively stable, which also makes downstream procurement this year biased towards short-term on-demand and on-demand. The main reason is that when the concentrated milk market is starting to rise, downstream on-demand procurement and a small amount of purchases and replenishment have actually continued to bring support to the concentrated milk market to a certain extent.

Judging from this year's "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" situation, it is not the actual peak season that stimulates the increase in thick milk. More importantly, demand is stably supported and speculation on the supply side is frequent. Driven by the general environment, the cooperation between supply and demand has brought thick milk to a peak season for price increases. In the next November and December, problems at the end of the supply side will slowly emerge, and early purchase and replenishment during the Spring Festival will also begin to manifest, which in turn ensures that there is relatively limited room for a significant decline in the price of concentrated milk.