[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Weekly Review (October 19)
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October 19, 2023, 4:30 PM Figure 1: Shandong market price of STR20 MIX Figure 2: Zhejiang market price of ordinary bulk imported from Thailand
dry rubber
Natural rubber market prices rose within a narrow range this week. Abnormal weather continues in China's foreign producing areas, affecting rubber collection. The purchase price of raw materials is expected to continue to rise, and the cost side will support the natural rubber market. Overseas factories have postponed shipping schedules, the quantity of mixed Chinese standard rubber products arriving in Hong Kong is relatively small, and the continued removal of Chinese natural rubber stocks to the warehouse has boosted the confidence of the industry. In September, China's PMI returned to expansion range, downstream start-ups also remained stable, and automobile consumption in the fourth quarter is about to usher in the traditional prime time, which in turn will boost demand for natural rubber to a certain extent.
natural latex
China's concentrated milk offers rose within a narrow range this week. Frequent rainfall and weather disturbances in other producing areas in China have affected the normal development of rubber tapping operations. Raw material prices have also begun to show a significant upward trend, and cost-side support has gradually strengthened. Downstream use and collection, and a small amount of purchases and replenishment have actually continued to bring support to the concentrated milk market to a certain extent.
Market outlook forecast:
1、中国外产区降雨天气或存缓和预期，季节性上量阶段，原料价格支撑预期走弱；
2、预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率存小幅提升预期；
3、中国青岛库存量或存去库趋势，高库存压力有所缓和；
4、汇率、美联储加息等。