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Caustic soda: Although futures prices rebounded, they were not strong enough. The KD line had a crossing trend, and spot prices fell regionally.

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October 20, 2023, 4:08 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 20 SH2405 contract opening price: 2525, highest price: 2572, lowest price: 2504, spread: 68, position: 107147, reduced position: 1812, settlement price: 2538, yesterday settlement: 2535, up: 3, closing price: 2533, daily trading volume: 299451 hands, precipitated capital: 1.954 billion, capital outflow: 25.34 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October nineteenth

October twentieth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1170-1400

1170-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

912-1024

912-1024

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

900-960

860-950

-40/-10

-

Hebei

930-1000

900-950

-30/-50

Ex-factory price

South China

1060-1350

1050-1330

-10/-20

Can price

Shandong

890-990

860-990

-30/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1100-1130

1100-1130

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

890-980

890-960

0/-20

Delivery price

Tianjin

2950-3100

2950-3100

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

900-970

900-970

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

3250-3550

3250-3550

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1480-1600

1480-1600

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1570-1600

1550-1580

-20/-20

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1480-1560

1480-1560

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3300-3400

3300-3400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3400-3500

3400-3500

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3200-3450

3200-3450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3550-3650

3550-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1500-1640

1500-1600

0/-40

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

970-1030

970-1030

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3850

3350-3850

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:       today China's caustic soda market continues to decline slightly in some areas, the overall market atmosphere is weak, the market mentality in most areas is more cautious, wait-and-see market is dominant, liquid alkali prices fall in some areas, the tablet alkali market is relatively stable, and the price adjustment is more cautious. Today, the liquid alkali market shows a regional downward trend, the price center of gravity of market transactions in some areas has moved down, the market transaction atmosphere is general, and most operators are cautious. From the perspective of regional market price adjustment, 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali fell 10-50 yuan / ton, 49% ion-exchange membrane alkali fell 40 yuan / ton, 50% ion-exchange membrane alkali dropped 20 yuan / ton individually, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. First of all, the main production areas in Shandong Province, the main downstream alumina enterprises have price-cutting behavior, today the purchase price of liquid alkali is lowered, caustic soda manufacturers are under pressure to lower factory quotations, and the center of gravity of local market transactions is mainly shifted downwards. in addition, affected by the price reduction in Shandong, local prices fell. The overall trend of the market in other regions has not changed much. Although there are some differences in supply and demand among different regions, the market in the region is relatively stable. People in all regional industries wait and see the market mainly, and the operation of entering the market is more cautious. Some of the upstream production enterprises have lowered their ex-factory quotations, mostly in North China and Shandong, while most enterprises in other regions have not adjusted their ex-factory quotations, so the mentality of price adjustment is more cautious. Today, the trend of the tablet alkali market is relatively stable, the pre-sale situation of the manufacturers in the northwest of the main producing areas is normal, the ex-factory quotations are arranged horizontally, and most of the devices operate normally; the market transaction is relatively flexible, and the transaction price in each regional market has not been significantly adjusted. Merchants actively ship goods, downstream demand performance is poor, near the weekend, the mentality of most enterprises is more cautious, the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract after the opening of night trading fell to today's lowest point of 2504, and then rebounded as a whole; early trading rose rapidly after a short-term concussion trend, but soon began to decline; afternoon price shock operation, late trading down again, the afternoon market reduction is more obvious. Today's turnover: 17.4% more, 21.1% empty; 22.6% more than 20.2% flat.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 3198.39, down 30.95, or 0.958%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract rebounded today, but the rebound is not strong enough, failed to hold up at today's high and then down again, the upper pressure is greater; Wenhua Commodity Index declined obviously, the overall mood of commodities is not high, also has an impact on caustic soda futures prices; trading opened 17.4% more than short opening 21.1%, the short sentiment is obvious The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is downward, the KD line at the daily line level has a crossing trend, and the MACD line still shows an obvious dead fork trend but slows down. Spot aspect: there is still a maintenance plan for the caustic soda plant in the later stage of the supply side, which forms a regional support for the caustic soda price, but the starting load of most units is relatively stable, and the early maintenance equipment is expected to be restored, and the overall supply on the market is sufficient, which is favorable to the price. Most of the downstream demand areas are resistant to the high-priced supply of goods, the enthusiasm of receiving goods is poor, and almost maintain rigid demand procurement. In addition, we need to pay attention to whether the main downstream alumina still has price-lowering behavior; the overall performance of fundamentals is weak. From the point of view of the market mentality, most operators are bearish on the future, and it is expected that the short-term caustic soda market is still not good, and prices are mainly falling regionally.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October nineteenth

October twentieth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

100-150

100-150

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on October 20, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 368.89, up 0%, 0%, China's liquid chlorine index is stable.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: