Introduction: before the festival, the Chinese methanol market was in a low and volatile trend, and when it came back after the festival, the rising trend of the market did not meet everyone's expectations, still showing a weak shock trend, not only that, the main contract price of methanol fell below the 2400 yuan mark, and the lowest price of the week fell to 2374 yuan. At present, the traditional downstream demand has entered the end of the peak season, and news of maintenance of individual MTO devices in the lower reaches of the week has been reported. Raising concerns among market operators about demand reduction, futures fell sharply to their lowest level since mid-August.

Cost: it is less likely that the price of raw coal will continue to rise.

Since August, coal mines in most areas of China have been affected by stringent safety inspections, and some coal mines have stopped production for rectification, resulting in a reduction in market supply in some regions, coupled with a certain demand in non-electricity industries and an increase in demand. coal prices have risen, but recently, with the coal mining enterprises of previous safety inspections resuming production one after another, coupled with the notice issued by the State Council on coal supply in winter, China's supply is gradually returning. Coal prices have also slowed down compared with the previous rise, and it is expected that there is little room for short-term coal prices to continue to rise.

Supply: China has equipment overhaul and restart, and the market starts or continues to maintain a high level.

Since the third quarter, with the restart of the previous maintenance equipment, the start-up of the Chinese market is gradually increasing. Although there is an unexpected shutdown, the maintenance time is relatively short, and the impact on the overall market supply is relatively limited. As of October 19, the average weekly start-up of China's methanol market is 64.10%. During the week, Ningxia Kunpeng 600000-ton plant has been restarted; Mongolia Shilin, Hebi and other devices have been stable after restart. Rongxin Phase I 900000-ton plant is being restored, but at the same time, Yulin Yanzhou Mining Phase I plant is scheduled to stop for overhaul on October 24th. Jiutai (Tuoxian) 2 million-ton plant will be stopped for about 9 days from October 18. Shandong Yanzhou Mining Guohong 640000-ton plant was stopped for a short time on October 19. it is expected to resume around October 23, China's supply does not change much, but with the news of Baofeng external mining, local market supply may be tight. The mentality of most operators in the field has changed, but in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the situation of the installation in the field and the influence of the natural gas restriction policy on the northwest and southwest gas head devices in the later stage.

Demand: demand performance is "sluggish in peak season", and short-term performance may not improve.

Before the festival, Sierbang and Zhejiang Xingxing have been restarted, and after the festival, Tianjin Bohua MTO plant has been started as scheduled, and the MTO market has been started at a high level, but the traditional downstream market demand has always been mediocre, and the demand side shows a "peak season" trend, and with the later cooling of the weather, some of the traditional downstream demand will enter the consumption off-season, and some areas will be affected by environmental protection restrictions and other factors, market start-up may be reduced. Downstream demand has also decreased, and short-term demand release is expected to be relatively limited.

Generally speaking, the supply and demand of the Chinese market is in a tight balance. Although there is news of parking in the downstream MTO device, the operation of Baofeng external production hedges the negative impact brought about by reduced demand, and the futures market maintains interval shocks, and it is expected that short-term methanol market prices may continue to fluctuate, but in the later stage, we still need to pay close attention to macro policies, crude oil, coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.