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Caustic soda: Futures were running strongly, the KD line showed a golden cross, and most spot prices fell

88,875
October 24, 2023, 4:05 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 24th SH2405 contract opening price: 2543, highest price: 2596, lowest price: 2525, spread: 71, position: 106394, reduced position: 6764, settlement price: 2560, yesterday settlement: 2547, up: 13, closing price: 2583, daily trading volume: 300187 hands, precipitated capital: 1.979 billion, capital outflow: 94.83 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October twenty _ third

October twenty _ fourth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1170-1400

1100-1400

-70/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

912-1024

912-992

0/-32

Ex-factory price

North China

840-950

790-890

-50/-60

-

Hebei

870-950

840-890

-30/-60

Ex-factory price

South China

1040-1330

1040-1330

0/0

Can price

Shandong

860-990

810-910

-50/-80

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1100-1130

1100-1130

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

870-950

820-920

-50/-30

Delivery price

Tianjin

2850-3050

2850-3050

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

900-970

830-930

-70/-40

Ex-factory price

Henan

3250-3550

3250-3550

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1450-1530

1400-1490

-50/-40

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1540-1580

1490-1530

-50/-50

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1450-1500

1400-1480

-50/-20

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3150-3250

3150-3250

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3400-3500

3400-3500

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3200-3450

3150-3450

-50/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3650

3500-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1450-1600

1380-1500

-70/-100

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

970-1030

970-1030

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3850

3350-3850

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:       today, the overall atmosphere of China's caustic soda market is weak, the price center of gravity of some manufacturers and market transactions in most areas has shifted downward, local areas are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the overall mood in the field is not high. Today, the liquid alkali market shows a downward trend in most regions. Judging from the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ion-exchange membrane alkali dropped 30-70 yuan / ton, 49% ion-exchange membrane alkali dropped 70-100 yuan / ton, and 50% of the ion-exchange membrane alkali dropped 20-50 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range was not significantly adjusted. The price of alumina purchasing liquid alkali in the lower reaches of Shandong area continues to decline, which is bad for the local liquid alkali market, so the market transaction price center of gravity in Shandong area moves down mainly; the price in some surrounding areas moves down with it; the downstream delivery of enterprises in some areas is poor, the enterprise shipment is general, the market transaction is not ideal, and the enterprise price reduction promotes the shipment. The overall trend of the market in other regions has not changed much, the industry is mainly wait-and-see, and the operation of entering the market is more cautious. Some of the upstream production enterprises have lowered their ex-factory quotations, which are mostly concentrated in Shandong and East China, while most enterprises in other regions have not adjusted their ex-factory quotations, so they are more cautious in price adjustment. Today, the trend of the tablet alkali market is slightly downward, a small number of manufacturers have lowered their new order quotations this week, most manufacturers will announce new order prices tomorrow, and the pre-sale situation of enterprises is normal; the enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream is weak, and the merchants' shipping situation is poor. The center of gravity of market transactions in some areas has moved down, and market sentiment as a whole is not high.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract shows an upward trend as a whole. After a brief decline in night trading, prices began to wobble upward; in the late morning trading, prices rose strongly to today's peak of 2596, then fluctuated back down; and prices rose slightly again in the afternoon. By the afternoon close: 18.3% more than 19% open; 23.4% more than flat 21.1%.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index fell to 3105.31, down 70.76, or 2.228%, on October 24, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract price is slightly stronger in intraday trading. According to the trading statistics of the market, Kongping took a profit of 23.4%, of which 19% opened more than 18.3%, and the forces of long and short were almost the same. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) has the meaning of narrowing, and the price rises through the 5th line of the MA combination line, the KD line of the daily line shows a golden fork trend, and the dead cross trend of the MACD line narrows obviously. Overall, futures prices may still have an upward trend in the short term. Spot aspect: at present, there is no obvious positive support for the fundamentals in the market, on the contrary, most of them show negative effects, and the market trend is poor when the fundamentals are weak, coupled with the continuous price pressure of the main downstream alumina enterprises, the market is easy to fall and difficult to rise, and most operators are more bearish on the future. Under the circumstances of relatively weak downstream demand and greater pressure on enterprise shipments, the short-term caustic soda market is expected to maintain weak operation.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October twenty _ third

October twenty _ fourth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

100-300

1-200

-99/-100

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

100-300

100-200

0/-100

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-100

-50-100

-100/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

100-200

100-150

0/-50

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

200-300

100-300

-100/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index fell by 12.03% to 283.44, down 38.78%, while China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: