Gasoline: Fundamental support is weak, and the downward trend of the market remains unchanged
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October 25, 2023, 4:08 PM Gasoline: fundamental support is weak and the market is still in a downward trend.
International crude oil closed
|
Date |
Market |
Specifications |
Close (US dollars / barrel) |
Rise and fall |
|
20231024 |
America |
WTI |
83.74 |
-1.75 |
|
20231024 |
The United Kingdom |
Brent |
88.07 |
-1.76 |
Gasoline price index
On October 25, China's gasoline price index fell 74.31, or 0.82%, to 8951.01, while China's gasoline price index fell 72.47, or 0.77%, to 9291.25. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 340.25.
Gasoline market analysis:
Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China continues to decline, with the overall market falling by 50-200 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price is mainly reduced, the reduction is concentrated in 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market continues to be flat, the market wait-and-see mood is strong and bearish, the operation of operators entering the market is significantly reduced, and the procurement frequency of rigid demand slows down; the monthly task of refineries is poor, mainly out of storage. On the whole, the fundamental support is weak and the market is still in a downward trend.
|
October 25th wholesale price of gasoline (RMB / ton) |
||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 10.24 |
Price 10.25 |
Rise and fall |
|
North China region |
92# |
8500-9600 |
8400-9600 |
-100/0 |
|
95# |
8700-10000 |
8600-10000 |
-100/0 |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8800-9700 |
8800-9600 |
0/-100 |
|
95# |
9050-10000 |
9050-9900 |
0/-100 |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8700-9200 |
8600-9200 |
-100/0 |
|
95# |
8850-9400 |
8750-9400 |
-100/0 |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8750-9650 |
8550-9650 |
-200/0 |
|
95# |
8950-10000 |
8750-10000 |
-200/0 |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8530-10050 |
8530-10000 |
0/-50 |
|
95# |
8730-10450 |
8700-10450 |
-30/0 |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8850-9400 |
8800-9350 |
-50/-50 |
|
95# |
9100-9780 |
9050-9720 |
-50/-60 |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8700-9800 |
8600-9800 |
-100/0 |
|
95# |
8930-10000 |
8900-10000 |
-30/0 |
|
|
October 25 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton) |
||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 10.24 |
Price 10.25 |
Rise and fall |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8100-8420 |
8050-8380 |
-50/-40 |
|
95# |
8250-8640 |
8180-8600 |
-70/-40 |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8160-8200 |
8110-8170 |
-50/-30 |
|
95# |
8300-8260 |
8250-8230 |
-50/-30 |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8470-8470 |
8370-8370 |
-100/-100 |
|
95# |
8670-8670 |
8570-8570 |
-100/-100 |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8280-8450 |
8200-8380 |
-80/-70 |
|
95# |
8400-8620 |
8320-8550 |
-80/-70 |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8250-8450 |
8250-8450 |
0/0 |
|
95# |
8350-8650 |
8350-8650 |
0/0 |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8600-8700 |
8600-8700 |
0/0 |
|
95# |
9000-8900 |
9000-8900 |
0/0 |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8750-8750 |
-50/-50 |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
8900-8900 |
-50/-50 |
|
Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, the performance of European economic data is poor, the superimposed war has not been further intensified, and international oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, driven by the lack of positive factors in the oil market. From the perspective of the Chinese market, the retail price limit is reduced and the gasoline (standard) is reduced by 70 yuan / ton, which is a negative guide to the news. In addition, the state released new news: an additional trillion yuan of treasury bonds will be issued in the fourth quarter of this year to boost China's commodity sentiment, including gasoline. After the state increased policy support, the gasoline market remained downward, a more important factor is the fundamentals of China's supply and demand, the current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to improve in a short time. Taken together, it is expected that China's gasoline market will continue to decline in the short term.
Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities
Since 24:00 on October 24, 2023, the price of gasoline and diesel in China has been reduced by 70 yuan per ton (standard, the same below). After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be November 7.
Schedule
Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities
Unit: yuan / ton
|
|
I. areas with one province and one price |
|
|
|
Gasoline (standard) |
Diesel oil (standard) |
|
Beijing |
10345 |
9285 |
|
Tianjin |
10310 |
9250 |
|
Hebei Province |
10310 |
9250 |
|
Shanxi province |
10380 |
9305 |
|
Liaoning province |
10310 |
9250 |
|
Jilin Province |
10310 |
9250 |
|
Heilongjiang province |
10310 |
9250 |
|
Shanghai |
10325 |
9255 |
|
Jiangsu Province |
10365 |
9290 |
|
Zhejiang Province |
10365 |
9305 |
|
Anhui province |
10360 |
9300 |
|
Fujian Province |
10385 |
9315 |
|
Jiangxi province |
10365 |
9310 |
|
Shandong province |
10320 |
9260 |
|
Hubei province |
10335 |
9275 |
|
Hunan Province |
10375 |
9335 |
|
Henan province |
10330 |
9270 |
|
Hainan province |
10455 |
9385 |
|
Chongqing |
10525 |
9460 |
|
Guangdong province |
10390 |
9320 |
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
10455 |
9385 |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
10315 |
9250 |
|
Gansu province |
10295 |
9270 |
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
10090 |
9145 |
|
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being |
||
|
|
Gasoline (standard) |
Diesel oil (standard) |
|
Hohhot |
10325 |
9265 |
|
Chengdu city |
10530 |
9485 |
|
Guiyang city |
10490 |
9410 |
|
Kunming City |
10520 |
9440 |
|
Xi'an city |
10295 |
9260 |
|
Xining City |
10275 |
9295 |
Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.
2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.
3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.
4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9580 yuan and 8520 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.