Tu Duoduo Gasoline Industry Special Issue-No. 20231026
92,707 
October 26, 2023, 4:41 PM
Gasoline Special issue-20231026 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231018 |
88.32 |
91.5 |
94.09 |
92.62 |
673.6 |
-3.18 |
-1.12 |
|
20231025 |
85.39 |
90.13 |
91.57 |
89.04 |
666 |
-4.74 |
1.09 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
-3.32% |
-1.50% |
-2.68% |
-3.87% |
-1.13% |
49.06% |
-197.32% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
China's gasoline market continued to decline this week (20231020-20231026), with the main wholesale prices in all regions falling more than last week, with a reduction of 50,350 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of the refinery will be reduced by 200-400 yuan / ton. The main factors of this week's gasoline market: 1. International crude oil: the uncertainty of geopolitical events continues, the development of the conflict between Palestine and Israel leads the trend of oil prices, in addition, the economic data of Europe and the United States are not as expected, which is mainly due to the decline of international oil prices this week. 2. Chinese market: the performance of demand side continues to be poor, the wait-and-see mood of traders in the middle and lower reaches is strong, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is obviously reduced, the process of reducing the stock of refineries is slow, the transaction policy remains flexible, and the operation of price reduction and promotion is frequent. Under the bearish mood, some local refineries reduce the starting load and reduce the inventory pressure. On the whole, the demand is difficult to change tired, and the market trading is weak.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of October 26, China's gasoline price index was 8934.74, down 264.51 from last week, or 2.88%, down 2.88%. The gasoline price index fell 255.54, or 2.68%, from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 340.54.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8680-9600 |
8400-9600 |
-280/0 |
-3.23%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8880-10000 |
8600-10000 |
-280/0 |
-3.15%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
9000-9700 |
8650-9650 |
-350/-50 |
-3.89%/-0.52% |
|
95# |
9250-10000 |
8900-9950 |
-350/-50 |
-3.78%/-0.50% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8900-9200 |
8600-9200 |
-300/0 |
-3.37%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9450 |
8750-9400 |
-350/-50 |
-3.85%/-0.53% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8850-9650 |
8550-9650 |
-300/0 |
-3.39%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9050-10000 |
8750-10000 |
-300/0 |
-3.31%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8830-10050 |
8330-10000 |
-500/-50 |
-5.66%/-0.50% |
|
95# |
9030-10450 |
8530-10450 |
-500/0 |
-5.54%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
9050-9530 |
8750-9330 |
-300/-200 |
-3.31%/-2.10% |
|
95# |
9350-9950 |
9000-9650 |
-350/-300 |
-3.74%/-3.02% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8900-9800 |
8600-9800 |
-300/0 |
-3.37%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9200-10000 |
8900-10000 |
-300/0 |
-3.26%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8400-8670 |
8050-8380 |
-350/-290 |
-4.17%/-3.34% |
|
95# |
8480-8860 |
8180-8600 |
-300/-260 |
-3.54%/-2.93% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8430-8550 |
8110-8220 |
-320/-330 |
-3.80%/-3.86% |
|
95# |
8530-8600 |
8250-8280 |
-280/-320 |
-3.28%/-3.72% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8370-8370 |
-330/-330 |
-3.79%/-3.79% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8570-8570 |
-330/-330 |
-3.71%/-3.71% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8510-8620 |
8200-8380 |
-310/-240 |
-3.64%/-2.78% |
|
95# |
8630-8790 |
8320-8550 |
-310/-240 |
-3.59%/-2.73% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8650-8750 |
8250-8250 |
-400/-500 |
-4.62%/-5.71% |
|
95# |
8750-8950 |
8350-8450 |
-400/-500 |
-4.57%/-5.59% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8800-8900 |
8600-8700 |
-200/-200 |
-2.27%/-2.25% |
|
95# |
9100-9100 |
9000-8900 |
-100/-200 |
-1.10%/-2.20% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
9150-9150 |
8650-8650 |
-500/-500 |
-5.46%/-5.46% |
|
95# |
9300-9300 |
8800-8800 |
-500/-500 |
-5.38%/-5.38% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
9250-9800 |
8820-9800 |
-430/0 |
-4.65%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9850-10150 |
9450-10150 |
-400/0 |
-4.06%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8950-9400 |
8700-9200 |
-250/-200 |
-2.79%/-2.13% |
|
95# |
9130-9800 |
9000-9790 |
-130/-10 |
-1.42%/-0.10% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
9250-9250 |
8820-8820 |
-430/-430 |
-4.65%/-4.65% |
|
95# |
9500-9500 |
9450-9450 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.53% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8850-9000 |
8650-8800 |
-200/-200 |
-2.26%/-2.22% |
|
95# |
9000-9200 |
8850-9000 |
-150/-200 |
-1.67%/-2.17% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
9000-9650 |
8650-8750 |
-350/-900 |
-3.89%/-9.33% |
|
95# |
9150-10000 |
8900-10000 |
-250/0 |
-2.73%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
9000-9100 |
8750-8950 |
-250/-150 |
-2.78%/-1.65% |
|
95# |
9250-9400 |
9000-9250 |
-250/-150 |
-2.70%/-1.60% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8900-9250 |
8800-9000 |
-100/-250 |
-1.12%/-2.70% |
|
95# |
9250-9500 |
9000-9250 |
-250/-250 |
-2.70%/-2.63% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
9050-9050 |
8800-8950 |
-250/-100 |
-2.76%/-1.10% |
|
95# |
9250-9250 |
9000-9150 |
-250/-100 |
-2.70%/-1.08% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
9100-9200 |
9050-9200 |
-50/0 |
-0.55%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9400-9400 |
9350-9400 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8900-9300 |
8700-9150 |
-200/-150 |
-2.25%/-1.61% |
|
95# |
9100-9450 |
8900-9450 |
-200/0 |
-2.20%/0.00% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8900-9070 |
8700-8800 |
-200/-270 |
-2.25%/-2.98% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
8900-9050 |
-200/-250 |
-2.20%/-2.69% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
9000-9100 |
8800-8900 |
-200/-200 |
-2.22%/-2.20% |
|
95# |
9200-9300 |
9000-9100 |
-200/-200 |
-2.17%/-2.15% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
9200-9200 |
8800-8800 |
-400/-400 |
-4.35%/-4.35% |
|
95# |
9400-9500 |
9000-9100 |
-400/-400 |
-4.26%/-4.21% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8650-8900 |
8350-8450 |
-300/-450 |
-3.47%/-5.06% |
|
95# |
8850-9100 |
8550-8750 |
-300/-350 |
-3.39%/-3.85% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8600-8950 |
8600-8700 |
0/-250 |
0.00%/-2.79% |
|
95# |
9250-10000 |
9000-10000 |
-250/0 |
-2.70%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8860-8900 |
8660-8900 |
-200/0 |
-2.26%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9060-9150 |
8860-9100 |
-200/-50 |
-2.21%/-0.55% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8900-9050 |
8650-9050 |
-250/0 |
-2.81%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9120-9420 |
8900-9420 |
-220/0 |
-2.41%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
9100-9700 |
8800-9680 |
-300/-20 |
-3.30%/-0.21% |
|
95# |
9400-10000 |
9100-9950 |
-300/-50 |
-3.19%/-0.50% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
9300-9400 |
9300-9300 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.06% |
|
95# |
9500-9600 |
9500-9500 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.04% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8970-9200 |
8850-9150 |
-120/-50 |
-1.34%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9220-9450 |
9100-9400 |
-120/-50 |
-1.30%/-0.53% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
9200-10210 |
8900-10000 |
-300/-210 |
-3.26%/-2.06% |
|
95# |
9400-10600 |
9100-10380 |
-300/-220 |
-3.19%/-2.08% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
10350-10350 |
10277-10277 |
-73/-73 |
-0.71%/-0.71% |
|
95# |
10950-10950 |
10865-10865 |
-85/-85 |
-0.78%/-0.78% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8950-10680 |
8650-10610 |
-300/-70 |
-3.35%/-0.66% |
|
95# |
9550-11300 |
9200-11230 |
-350/-70 |
-3.66%/-0.62% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
10050-10080 |
9980-9980 |
-70/-100 |
-0.70%/-0.99% |
|
95# |
10450-10480 |
10380-10380 |
-70/-100 |
-0.67%/-0.95% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8750-10130 |
8330-10088 |
-420/-42 |
-4.80%/-0.41% |
|
95# |
8950-10520 |
8530-10468 |
-420/-52 |
-4.69%/-0.49% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9610-9610 |
9510-9510 |
-100/-100 |
-1.04%/-1.04% |
|
95# |
10010-10010 |
9910-9910 |
-100/-100 |
-1.00%/-1.00% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9280-9500 |
9050-9200 |
-230/-300 |
-2.48%/-3.16% |
|
95# |
9730-9950 |
9500-9650 |
-230/-300 |
-2.36%/-3.02% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9250-9450 |
9200-9280 |
-50/-170 |
-0.54%/-1.80% |
|
95# |
9700-9850 |
9480-9600 |
-220/-250 |
-2.27%/-2.54% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
9200-10860 |
8750-10780 |
-450/-80 |
-4.89%/-0.74% |
|
95# |
9350-11480 |
9000-11410 |
-350/-70 |
-3.74%/-0.61% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9300-9400 |
9050-9100 |
-250/-300 |
-2.69%/-3.19% |
|
95# |
9550-9700 |
9300-9400 |
-250/-300 |
-2.62%/-3.09% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
9100-9800 |
8800-9200 |
-300/-600 |
-3.30%/-6.12% |
|
95# |
9350-10200 |
9100-9450 |
-250/-750 |
-2.67%/-7.35% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8800-8900 |
8600-8700 |
-200/-200 |
-2.27%/-2.25% |
|
95# |
9100-9100 |
9000-8900 |
-100/-200 |
-1.10%/-2.20% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8510-8620 |
8200-8380 |
-310/-240 |
-3.64%/-2.78% |
|
95# |
8630-8790 |
8320-8550 |
-310/-240 |
-3.59%/-2.73% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8370-8370 |
-330/-330 |
-3.79%/-3.79% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8570-8570 |
-330/-330 |
-3.71%/-3.71% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8430-8550 |
8110-8220 |
-320/-330 |
-3.80%/-3.86% |
|
95# |
8530-8600 |
8250-8280 |
-280/-320 |
-3.28%/-3.72% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8400-8670 |
8050-8380 |
-350/-290 |
-4.17%/-3.34% |
|
95# |
8480-8860 |
8180-8600 |
-300/-260 |
-3.54%/-2.93% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8500-8600 |
8250-8250 |
-250/-350 |
-2.94%/-4.07% |
|
95# |
8650-8750 |
8400-8400 |
-250/-350 |
-2.89%/-4.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8750-8750 |
8250-8250 |
-500/-500 |
-5.71%/-5.71% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
8450-8450 |
-500/-500 |
-5.59%/-5.59% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9150-9150 |
8950-8950 |
-200/-200 |
-2.19%/-2.19% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.19 |
Price 10.26 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
9150-9150 |
8650-8650 |
-500/-500 |
-5.46%/-5.46% |
|
95# |
9300-9300 |
8800-8800 |
-500/-500 |
-5.38%/-5.38% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, the market is waiting to see the evolution of the situation in the Middle East, and geopolitical uncertainty disturbs the rise and fall of oil prices. Recently, Israeli forces have invaded California on a large scale, which is at risk of spreading beyond the Middle East. From the demand point of view, the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is coming to an end, gasoline consumption is lack of positive factors to stimulate, or continue to remain light. On the supply side, there are no new refinery overhauls in China's main business and refinery next week, and no refinery overhauls are over and restart, but refineries in some areas still maintain low-load operation in the face of poor demand, and capacity utilization is expected to decline next week. On the whole, China's gasoline market still shows that the situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to improve in the short term. It is expected that China's gasoline market will remain weak in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
China's capacity utilization continued to decline this week (20231020-20231026), with the main unit capacity utilization rate of 79.37%, down 0.49% from last week, and the operating rate of independent refineries at 68.14%, down 1.67% from last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.2223 million tons, China's main output is 2.2595 million tons, China's independent refineries output 962800 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 929300 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.2386 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit-12.85 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 290.09 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 66 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-358 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 462 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Qingdao Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 7, 2023 |
End of November 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 15, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 19, 2023 |
September 18, 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
2400 |
August 1, 2023 |
September 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
August 5, 2023 |
Mid-September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
August 30, 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
|
Huaxing petrochemical |
Catalysis, coking |
/ |
October 16, 2023 |
November 2023 |