A single discussion on weak downward prices in the soda ash market (10.26 Weekly Review of soda ash)
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October 27, 2023, 4:40 PM 1. Analysis of China's soda ash market
This week, the market price of soda ash in China continues to remain weak. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 2,100 - 2,600 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,500 - 2,800 yuan/ton. This week, some soda ash manufacturers have stopped their installations, and the market supply has been slightly fluctuated; downstream demand is still poor, soda ash prices are maintaining a downward trend. Downstream companies are very bearish, and they are still in need of purchasing, and their purchasing mood is cautious, and they are still depressed about soda ash prices; Soda factory shipments are under pressure. Enterprises 'early orders on hand have decreased, manufacturers' inventories have continued to increase, and light soda and heavy soda inventories have risen simultaneously; the soda ash market has fallen rapidly, and the current regional price difference has also widened. The focus of market transactions has stabilized. Move down, soda ash prices have been discussed separately.
Forecast for next week: The supply of soda ash in the market is basically stable, with the start-up of individual companies having a slight impact, but the overall market supply has little impact; the soda ash market continues to fall this month, and the market purchasing sentiment is cautious. Downstream companies remain in need of purchasing. Due to the rapid decline in market prices, most soda ash companies are not quoting for the time being. Companies are waiting to see more, and market participants are more bearish on the future. It is expected that the soda ash market will continue to maintain a weak operation in the short term.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
|
areas |
specifications |
October 19 |
October 26 |
rise and fall |
previous month |
|
Northeast China |
light soda ash |
2825 |
2700 |
-125 |
-4.42% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
3100 |
2800 |
-300 |
-9.68% |
|
|
in North China |
light soda ash |
2800 |
2650 |
-150 |
-5.36% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
3000 |
2850 |
-150 |
-5.00% |
|
|
East China |
light soda ash |
2700 |
2475 |
-225 |
-8.33% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
3000 |
2700 |
-300 |
-10.00% |
|
|
central China |
light soda ash |
2575 |
2300 |
-275 |
-10.68% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2875 |
2525 |
-350 |
-12.17% |
|
|
South China |
light soda ash |
2700 |
2550 |
-150 |
-5.56% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2950 |
2700 |
-250 |
-8.47% |
|
|
southwestern region |
light soda ash |
2950 |
2600 |
-350 |
-11.86% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
3150 |
2700 |
-450 |
-14.29% |
|
|
northwestern region |
light soda ash |
2350 |
2125 |
-225 |
-9.57% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2550 |
2200 |
-350 |
-13.73% |
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of October 26 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 1082 yuan/ton, down 266 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 891 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan/ton from the previous week.
|
production process |
October 19 |
October 26 |
Weekly ups and downs |
rise and fall |
|
combined alkali method |
1348 |
1082 |
-266 |
-19.73% |
|
ammonia-soda process |
1062 |
891 |
-171 |
-16.10% |
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
This week, the soda ash industry started at 89%, down 1% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 690,000 tons.
|
Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on October 26, 2023 |
|||
|
process |
enterprise name |
production capacity |
device condition |
|
combined alkali method |
Fujian Yaolong |
40 |
Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined |
|
Huainan Debang |
60 |
On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined. |
|
|
Tianjin soda plant |
80 |
The company will stop for maintenance on October 20, and the expected recovery time will be at the end of the month. |
|
|
Henan Junhua |
60 |
On October 23, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance for one day |
|
|
chlor-alkali process |
Jiangsu jingshen |
60 |
The company will stop for maintenance on October 13, and the expected recovery time will be at the end of the month. |
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 451,000 tons, compared with 381,000 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 70,900 tons, or 18.65%.
