[Natural Rubber]: Monthly Rubber Review (October 2023)
93,842 
October 30, 2023, 3:32 PM dry rubber
In October, China's natural rubber spot market maintained a narrow range and then fluctuated. In the first week after returning from the two-season holiday, the natural rubber market still had increased speculation on purchasing and purchasing, and the macro market performed better than expected. Fundamentally speaking, abnormal phenology in China's foreign producing areas interferes with glue output. In China's foreign producing areas, raw materials are not released enough during the peak production season. Raw material prices are rising strongly. The inventory of overseas factories is operating at a low level. There is no significant increase in standard glue and mixed products arriving at the port., the shipping schedule is delayed, and the inventory of Qingdao Port continues to decrease. On the demand side, the overall performance of automobile production and sales in the third quarter was better than expected. The "gold nine and silver ten" effect reappeared, and tire demand increased significantly, helping rubber growth. At the end of the month, the positive factors in the early stage of the market were gradually absorbed, and the macro-market boost was limited, and the rubber price range fluctuated.
natural latex
In October, the price trend of China's natural latex market rose within a narrow range. The output of new rubber in Southeast Asian producing areas is still low in the booming season, and the purchase price of raw materials is higher than market expectations. Under cost pressure, the US dollar offer of Thailand's concentrated milk processing factory has climbed, while the supply of imported rubber that can be circulated in the sales area is relatively small. Traders are reluctant to sell. The atmosphere is obvious. The offer follows the increase and then ships are shipped. The focus of negotiations on actual orders in the market has shifted. However, the sentiment of downstream product companies is dominant, and the resistance to high-priced raw materials is heating up, and the transaction is just needed. Deadlock in market trading near the end of the month drags traders 'trading mentality and suppresses the room for spot growth.
Market outlook forecast:
1. Rainfall in major natural rubber producing areas around the world may ease in November, and raw material supply will be pressurized;
2. Downstream starts in November may remain high;
In March and November, Qingdao's inventory continued the trend of removing inventory, and social inventory pressure declined.
4. Pay attention to China's macro policies and news trends.
Table 1 International market
|
products |
October 2023 |
September 2023 |
from the previous month |
October 2022 |
compared with last year |
remarks |
|
|
dry rubber |
Taibiao |
1506.67 |
1472.50 |
2.32% |
1366.29 |
10.27% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Taihun |
1506.67 |
1472.50 |
2.32% |
1366.29 |
10.27% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
RSS3 |
1671.00 |
1610.00 |
3.79% |
1547.90 |
7.95% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
natural latex |
Thai Barrel |
1254.33 |
1207.69 |
3.86% |
1147.10 |
9.35% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Thailand Bulk |
1134.33 |
1087.69 |
4.29% |
1024.84 |
10.68% |
cif USD/ton |
|
|
Vietnam |
1040.33 |
979.62 |
6.20% |
928.42 |
12.05% |
cif USD/ton |
|
Table 2 Chinese market
|
products |
market |
varieties |
October 2023 |
September 2023 |
from the previous month |
October 2022 |
compared with last year |
remarks |
|
dry rubber |
Shandong market |
Thai mixed (spot) |
12035.33 |
11652.31 |
3.29% |
10913.87 |
10.28% |
Yuan/ton |
|
Thai mixed (cargo) |
12067.67 |
11681.54 |
3.31% |
10949.03 |
10.22% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Taibiao |
1507.50 |
1487.31 |
1.36% |
1345.16 |
12.07% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
Taihun |
1463.83 |
1426.73 |
2.60% |
1332.10 |
9.89% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
RSS3 |
1620.00 |
1590.77 |
1.84% |
1518.87 |
6.66% |
us dollars/ton |
||
|
full latex |
11641.11 |
12935.90 |
-10.01% |
11703.23 |
-0.53% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
3L |
12360.00 |
12167.31 |
1.58% |
11808.06 |
4.67% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
natural latex |
Ningbo market |
Taihuatong |
11695.00 |
11376.92 |
2.80% |
10522.22 |
-- |
Yuan/ton |
|
Thai yellow bag |
10581.67 |
10259.62 |
3.14% |
9330.65 |
13.41% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Thai non-yellow package |
10476.67 |
10159.62 |
3.12% |
9172.58 |
14.22% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
domestic |
9678.33 |
9288.46 |
4.20% |
8437.10 |
14.71% |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Vietnam |
9810.00 |
9319.23 |
5.27% |
8333.87 |
17.71% |
Yuan/ton |