[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Weekly Review (November 2)
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November 2, 2023, 4:09 PM Figure 1: STR20 MIX Market Price in Shandong Figure 2: Zhejiang market Thailand imported ordinary bulk prices
dry adhesive
Natural rubber market prices narrowly fell this week. Recent raw material purchase prices high, upstream processing profits continue to hang upside down, to a certain extent to rubber prices form the bottom support, but with Southeast Asia production area precipitation easing, raw material increase expected to be strong, purchase prices or fall, drag down rubber prices. Beginning in the middle and late ten days of this month, the port continued to the early overseas orders, but the quantity is limited, Qingdao inventory continues to store situation is still at a high level. Fourth quarter tire export margin weakened demand decline, raw materials presented high price resistance psychology, suppressed rubber price rebound strength, short - term natural rubber market showed a weak trend.
Natural latex
This week, China's condensed milk quotation narrowly fell. At present, domestic and overseas production areas of new rubber supply is in the state of increasing quantity, rainfall is significantly reduced, raw material quantity is expected to strengthen, and downstream of raw materials presents high price conflict psychology, further suppressing the spot quotation price downward, and under the influence of 'buy up not buy down' sentiment, downstream factories actively purchase replenishment willingness is weak, actual transaction is limited, some holders dump sentiment is high, spot quotation weak consolidation.
Future market forecast:
1、中国外产区降雨天气或存缓和预期，季节性上量阶段，原料价格支撑预期走弱；
2、预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率小幅波动；
3、中国青岛库存量或存去库趋势，高库存压力有所缓和；
4、汇率、美联储加息等。