Soda ash prices are stable and declining. Market sentiment is not high (11.02 Soda Ash Weekly Review)
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November 3, 2023, 5:00 PM 1. Analysis of China's soda ash market
This week, China's soda ash market has generally declined. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton. This week, the plant production of individual soda ash companies has dropped, and the market supply has decreased slightly; The spot price of soda ash has continued to fall, and the follow-up of new orders in the market has not been good. Companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the inventory of some soda plants has increased again; Downstream companies remain cautious in purchasing, and the focus of market transactions has been steadily moving downward, and the decline has been rapid. Some manufacturers have not quoted new soda ash orders for the time being. Market participants are mostly bearish on the future outlook, and the market remains weak.
Forecast for next week: Recently, due to factors such as the market and equipment, the start-up of equipment by some manufacturers has declined. The recovery time is still uncertain, and supply may show an increasing trend in the later period; downstream market demand remains stable, but corporate purchasing sentiment is light, and the focus is on waiting and seeing; The soda ash market continues to weaken and prices maintain a downward trend.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
|
areas |
specifications |
October 26 |
November 2 |
rise and fall |
previous month |
|
Northeast China |
light soda ash |
2700 |
2350 |
-350 |
-12.96% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2800 |
2500 |
-300 |
-10.71% |
|
|
in North China |
light soda ash |
2650 |
2250 |
-400 |
-15.09% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2850 |
2450 |
-400 |
-14.04% |
|
|
East China |
light soda ash |
2475 |
2075 |
-400 |
-16.16% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2700 |
2300 |
-400 |
-14.81% |
|
|
central China |
light soda ash |
2300 |
1925 |
-375 |
-16.30% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2525 |
2200 |
-325 |
-12.87% |
|
|
South China |
light soda ash |
2550 |
2175 |
-375 |
-14.71% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2700 |
2475 |
-225 |
-8.33% |
|
|
southwestern region |
light soda ash |
2600 |
2400 |
-200 |
-7.69% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2700 |
2650 |
-50 |
-1.85% |
|
|
northwestern region |
light soda ash |
2125 |
1975 |
-150 |
-7.06% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2200 |
2175 |
-25 |
-1.14% |
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of November 2 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 734 yuan/ton, down 348 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 600 yuan/ton, down 291 yuan/ton from the previous week.
|
production process |
October 26 |
November 2 |
Weekly ups and downs |
rise and fall |
|
combined alkali method |
1082 |
734 |
-348 |
-32.16% |
|
ammonia-soda process |
891 |
600 |
-291 |
-32.66% |
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
This week, the soda ash industry started at 87%, down 2% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 679,000 tons.
|
Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on November 2, 2023 |
|||
|
process |
enterprise name |
production capacity |
device condition |
|
combined alkali method |
Fujian Yaolong |
40 |
Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined |
|
Huainan Debang |
60 |
On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined. |
|
|
Tianjin soda plant |
80 |
The company will stop for maintenance on October 20, and the expected recovery time will be at the end of the month. |
|
|
Henan Junhua |
60 |
On November 1, the company's equipment will be stopped for maintenance for one day |
|
|
Zhongyan Red Sifang |
35 |
On November 1, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance for 2 days |
|
|
chlor-alkali process |
Qinghai Salt Lake |
120 |
On October 27, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined |
|
Qinghai Fantou |
140 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined |
|
|
Kunlun Jianye |
150 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined |
|
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 518,000 tons, compared with 451,000 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 67,000 tons, or 14.86%.
