Yield data analysis

According to the monthly data report of the Global Natural Rubber Association (ANRPC), the outlook for global natural rubber (NR) production this year has been positively revised and is expected to grow by 2.3 per cent compared with the same period last year. Global NR production is expected to reach 14.927 million tonnes, due to adjustments to initial production estimates by ANRPC member countries, particularly Vietnam and China. In September, NR production reached 1.417 million tons, an increase of 51000 tons compared with August production. This positive trend is expected to continue into October, with an increase of 130000 tons to 1.547 million tons.

Improvements in monthly yields can be observed in most countries, mainly driven by the continuous harvest season. However, Thailand faces major challenges, including torrential rains, thunderstorms and strong winds, due to the adverse climate during the monsoon. These adverse conditions led to flash floods affecting more than 30 provinces of Thailand, spanning the central, northern and southern regions. According to data from Thailand's Ministry of disaster Prevention and reduction, as of September this year, the floods had affected more than 15000 families across Thailand. Recognizing the potential risks of torrential rains and rainfall accumulation, which could lead to flash floods and forest loss in the coming months, the Thai meteorological department issued a warning to 43 provinces across the country, including Bangkok. The recommendation strongly urges residents to remain vigilant, paying particular attention to low-lying communities and hillsides close to waterways. In addition, it is predicted that sustained torrential rains could affect up to 60% of the region, while southern provinces have been warned to prepare for flash floods and sudden waves.

Consumption data analysis

According to the monthly data report of the Global Natural Rubber Association (ANRPC), the outlook for global natural rubber (NR) demand has been slightly revised, resulting in a slight increase to 15.575 million tons. This is an increase of 0.2 per cent compared with 15.54 million tons in 2022. This revision is mainly due to the adjustment of annual demand figures for China and Vietnam. In September, global NR demand rose significantly by 4.1 per cent to 1.361 million tonnes. In October, however, global demand for NR fell slightly by 0.6 per cent, totaling 1.353 million tonnes.

China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is well below 50, with 49.5 in October and 50.2 in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The index failed to meet market expectations to maintain the momentum of economic growth established in September. Analysts provided insights into the October manufacturing contraction, attributing it to the early release of consumer demand ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, as well as weak demand affected by continuing geopolitical tensions. China's car sales rose 4.7% in September from a year earlier. The positive growth was mainly driven by an increase in purchases ahead of the National Day holiday, when consumers took advantage of discounts on new models. The China passenger car Association (CPCA) reported that passenger car sales reached 2.04 million in September, the highest monthly sales in 2023.

According to industry estimates reported by the Economic Times, India shipped about 380000 vehicles in October, up from 362000 in September. However, the latest data released this week showed that manufacturing PMI activity in India fell to an eight-month low of 55.5 in October, compared with 57.5 in September. This decline may be due to competitive pressures and reduced market demand for certain goods.

Note: the statistics of global natural rubber consumption are based on the latest data and are for reference only.