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Caustic soda: The futures price hit a phased high of 2700. It continued to dive in late session, and the spot market continued to operate differently.

92,204
November 7, 2023, 4:22 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    November 7 SH2405 contract opening price: 2687, highest price: 2700, lowest price: 2632, spread: 68, position: 66734, reduced position: 6969, settlement price: 2671, yesterday settlement: 2655, up: 16, closing price: 2642, daily trading volume: 158264 hands, precipitated capital: 1.269 billion, capital outflow: 155 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

November sixth

November seventh

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

950-1350

950-1350

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

896-928

800-864

-96/-64

Ex-factory price

North China

760-840

750-840

-10/0

-

Hebei

810-840

810-840

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

1020-1280

950-1250

-70/-30

Can price

Shandong

730-870

730-820

0/-50

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1050-1100

1050-1100

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

790-860

790-860

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2600-2650

2600-2650

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

760-880

760-880

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2850-3000

2850-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1320-1450

1270-1380

-50/-70

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1440-1450

1440-1450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1280-1350

1250-1300

-30/-50

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

2900-3000

2900-3000

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3200-3300

3200-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

2650-3000

2650-3000

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3600

3500-3600

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1320-1430

1320-1430

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

940-1000

940-1000

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3100-3250

3100-3250

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:      today, the overall trend of China's caustic soda market is still weak, prices in some regions have increased slightly, regional markets continue to show differential operation, liquid caustic soda market has mixed ups and downs, and tablet caustic soda market prices have increased slightly in individual regions. Today, the prices in the liquid alkali market are mixed, and the market mentality in some areas is cautious and the price is stable. Judging from the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali has dropped by 10-100 yuan / ton, and 50% of the ionic membrane alkali has dropped by 30-70 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The market trend in the main producing areas is slightly different, the plant start-up in some areas has decreased recently, and the inventory pressure has decreased, the market price has mainly risen, and other regional markets continue to maintain the previous level of operation; the price decline in some areas is mainly due to the start-up of local liquid alkali devices, the supply has increased, and the price center of gravity of market transactions has shifted downward. The downstream demand of individual southern regions is poor, the enterprise shipping pressure is greater, and the market price is mainly falling. The market prices in other regions are stable, the changes between supply and demand are not obvious, the market mentality is more cautious, and there is no obvious price adjustment. Upstream production enterprises manufacturers in some areas have raised their ex-factory quotations ranging from 10 to 60 yuan / ton, and a few have lowered their quotations, mostly concentrated in Shandong, while only individual manufacturers in other areas have adjusted their quotations. Today, in the northwest of the tablet alkali market, most manufacturers have not issued a new order price, and individual manufacturers have lowered their quotations. It is understood that there are differences in the price adjustment mentality of manufacturers. In most areas, the market is mainly wait-and-see, waiting for the new order price to be announced, and the operators' mentality is more cautious.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract rose first and then fell today. Night market shock operation, did not see a big market appeared, after the opening of the morning price down slightly began to shock upward, in the afternoon continued to rise slightly to today's highest point, futures prices began to shock downward, and then continuously dived to the end of the market. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2632-2700 throughout the day, with a price difference of 68jie 05 contract reduced positions by 6969 hands, so far position 66734 hands.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tu Duoduo data, on November 7, China's caustic soda index was 2828.63, down 36, or 1.257%. China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract again hit a new high today, but did not see a high to hold down sharply. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) opens upward, the futures price continues to run on the track, and the MA combination line looks to run completely above this, the pressure level on the track does not work for the time being, the gold fork trend of the KD line at the daily level narrows, and the MACD line gold fork trend continues; short-term futures may repeatedly test the track position and pay attention to 2670 points.

Spot aspect: at present, the spot market shows differential operation. First of all, positive factors appear in a few areas of the liquid alkali market. With the continuous decline in the price of liquid alkali, enterprises reduce the price and ship goods, and the signing of orders at the beginning of the month increases, which shows that the inventory pressure of enterprises has been reduced. In addition, on this basis, a small number of devices are overhauled, which also brings a certain boost to the market. In some areas, the mentality of price promotion will be increased in most areas in the later stage. The start-up of liquid alkali units in individual areas has an impact on the local favorable air, and it is expected that the short-term liquid alkali market or regional adjustment will be dominant, and the factors that guide the market trend in different regions are slightly different. From the point of view of the tablet alkali market, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not great, only individual enterprises have a small number of inventory, supply is supported by the market, most of the downstream maintain rigid demand procurement, there is no large hoarding situation, and the new order prices of a few manufacturers are announced. price reduction and stable coexistence, pay attention to the announcement of the prices of most other manufacturers.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

November sixth

November seventh

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

300-500

100/100

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

300-400

400-500

100/100

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

150-200

250-300

100/100

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

150-350

150-350

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

350-450

350-450

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

100-150

100-150

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-500

400-600

100/100

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index rose 44.44%, or 12.9%, to 388.89 on November 7. China's liquid chlorine index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: