[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (November 14)
94,122 
November 14, 2023, 4:40 PM Analysis of natural rubber market price on November 14
index
On November 14, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1480/ton, up US$10/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.68%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date |
Previous period: RU Futures |
||||||
|
main contract |
closing price |
||||||
|
opening price |
Low-end price |
High-end price |
closing price |
RU01 |
RU05 |
RU09 |
|
|
November 14 |
14290 |
14290 |
14480 |
14450 |
14450 |
14575 |
14630 |
|
November 13 |
14355 |
14230 |
14370 |
14315 |
14315 |
14470 |
14475 |
|
rise and fall |
-65 |
60 |
110 |
135 |
135 |
105 |
155 |
|
date |
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price) |
|||
|
NR main force |
NR01 |
NR05 |
NR09 |
|
|
November 14 |
10870 |
10870 |
11280 |
11660 |
|
November 13 |
10750 |
10750 |
11135 |
11645 |
|
rise and fall |
120 |
120 |
145 |
15 |
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.
China: Weather conditions in China's production areas have returned to normal, raw material output has also gradually recovered, and Yunnan's production areas are close to stopping cutting, and raw material prices are relatively firm.
|
price type |
November 13 |
November 14 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
raw material prices |
Thailand |
glue |
51.2 |
51.5 |
0.3 |
baht/kg |
|
cup glue |
45.95 |
46.1 |
0.15 |
baht/kg |
||
|
Yunnan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
11800 |
11800 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
rubber block |
9800 |
9800 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Hainan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
12300 |
12300 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory) |
12300 |
12300 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
Demand side: It is understood that most semi-steel tire companies have performed steadily at start-up. Due to the obvious shortage of early orders, the current production capacity of some companies is limited, and the overall product supply is still relatively tight. However, as companies gradually increase the supply of domestic products, most companies The shortage of goods has improved. In terms of market shipments, the market for snow tire products is relatively good, and some specifications are still out of stock. Currently, the main reason is to make up for shortages, and the channels are also scattered to ship goods, mainly to digest inventory. The market demand for four seasons tires is relatively flat, social inventories are sufficient, terminal demand is weak, and goods are mainly in need of shipment.
Futures spot price list
|
price type |
November 13 |
November 14 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
price of finished products |
Shandong |
China All Latex |
13067 |
13183 |
117 |
Yuan/ton |
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 standard glue |
1470 |
1480 |
10 |
us dollars/ton |
|
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
12140 |
12240 |
100 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Hainan |
9550 |
9550 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk |
10350 |
10350 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
the current price difference |
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
2175 |
2210 |
35 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Main force-China All Latex |
1248 |
1267 |
18 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
relevant exchange rate |
us dollar against the RMB |
7.3113 |
7.3103 |
-0.001 |
Yuan |
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB |
0.2071 |
0.2066 |
-0.0005 |
Yuan |
||
market outlook
Recently, the rubber plate has risen within a narrow range. The overall supply of natural rubber in major producing areas in Southeast Asia has shown a seasonal increase. The peak season of cutting is conducive to the release of raw materials. However, raw material prices have not shown any obvious signs of falling in the short term, and there is still support on the cost side. Yunnan, China The production area has gradually entered the cut-off period, and the purchase price of raw materials has performed firmly. Coupled with the fact that the production profits of the upstream producing areas continue to be in a state of loss, there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. The off-season seasonal demand in the downstream tire industry is gradually emerging, and overall shipments are slow. Tire companies are mainly in need of procurement, and the possibility of tire companies reducing their burden increases. In the short term, the arrival of imported rubber in the port may continue to increase. Standard rubber in Qingdao's Gangkou District is expected to continue to accumulate. The removal of Qingdao's total inventory will slow down, and prices will be under pressure.