[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (November 15)
96,227 
November 15, 2023, 4:33 PM Analysis of natural rubber market price on November 15
index
On November 15, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1520/ton, up US$40/ton from the previous trading day, or 2.70%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date |
Previous period: RU Futures |
||||||
|
main contract |
closing price |
||||||
|
opening price |
Low-end price |
High-end price |
closing price |
RU01 |
RU05 |
RU09 |
|
|
November 15 |
14450 |
14370 |
14515 |
14495 |
14495 |
14615 |
14650 |
|
November 14 |
14290 |
14290 |
14480 |
14450 |
14450 |
14575 |
14630 |
|
rise and fall |
160 |
80 |
35 |
45 |
45 |
40 |
20 |
|
date |
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price) |
|||
|
NR main force |
NR01 |
NR05 |
NR09 |
|
|
November 15 |
10970 |
10970 |
11330 |
11660 |
|
November 14 |
10870 |
10870 |
11280 |
11660 |
|
rise and fall |
100 |
100 |
50 |
0 |
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.
China: Weather conditions in China's production areas have returned to normal, raw material output has also gradually recovered, and Yunnan's production areas are close to stopping cutting, and raw material prices are relatively firm.
|
price type |
November 14 |
November 15 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
raw material prices |
Thailand |
glue |
51.5 |
51.7 |
0.2 |
baht/kg |
|
cup glue |
46.1 |
46.2 |
0.1 |
baht/kg |
||
|
Yunnan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
11800 |
11800 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
rubber block |
9800 |
9800 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Hainan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
12300 |
12300 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory) |
12300 |
12300 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
Demand side: It is understood that there are certain differences in the current start-up of all steel tire companies, and most of them flexibly control production based on their own inventory conditions. Currently, most companies start at 60%-70% of the time. Overall shipments are slow and finished products have sufficient inventory. In terms of market shipments, social stocks of all-steel tires are sufficient, terminal demand is insufficient, delivery of goods through channels is relatively slow, and inventory is mainly digested between channels, which has intensified the bearish mentality towards the future market.
Futures spot price list
|
price type |
November 14 |
November 15 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
price of finished products |
Shandong |
China All Latex |
13183 |
13150 |
-33 |
Yuan/ton |
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 standard glue |
1480 |
1520 |
40 |
us dollars/ton |
|
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
12240 |
12300 |
60 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Hainan |
9550 |
9550 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk |
10350 |
10350 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
the current price difference |
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
2210 |
2195 |
-15 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Main force-China All Latex |
1267 |
1345 |
78 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
relevant exchange rate |
us dollar against the RMB |
7.3103 |
7.2657 |
-0.0446 |
Yuan |
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB |
0.2066 |
0.2083 |
0.0017 |
Yuan |
||
market outlook
Recently, the rubber market has fluctuated higher, and the overall supply of natural rubber in major producing areas in Southeast Asia has shown a seasonal increase. The peak season for cutting is conducive to the release of raw materials. However, the market's concerns about the supply of raw materials in Thailand's producing areas have begun to materialize, and raw material prices have remained high. China's Yunnan producing areas have gradually entered the cutting suspension period. The purchase prices of raw materials have performed firmly, and there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. Downstream foreign trade orders have shrunk, finished product inventories have accumulated, demand for natural rubber has weakened, and there is insufficient momentum to continue to rise. Combined with the arrival of imported rubber in the port may continue to increase. The expectation of domestic standard rubber in Qingdao Gangkou District is strong. The removal of Qingdao's total inventory has slowed down, upward pressure on prices has increased, with short-term rubber prices or high consolidation.