[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (December 13)
94,734 
December 13, 2023, 4:46 PM Analysis of natural rubber market price on December 13
index
On December 13, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1455/ton, down US$15/ton from the previous trading day, or 1.02%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date |
Previous period: RU Futures |
||||||
|
main contract |
closing price |
||||||
|
opening price |
Low-end price |
High-end price |
closing price |
RU01 |
RU05 |
RU09 |
|
|
December 13 |
13570 |
13340 |
13600 |
13405 |
13215 |
13405 |
13535 |
|
of 12 December |
13565 |
13495 |
13625 |
13590 |
13395 |
13590 |
13715 |
|
rise and fall |
5 |
-155 |
-25 |
-185 |
-180 |
-185 |
-180 |
|
date |
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price) |
|||
|
NR main force |
NR01 |
NR05 |
NR09 |
|
|
December 13 |
10225 |
10070 |
10585 |
11155 |
|
of 12 December |
10340 |
10190 |
10685 |
11155 |
|
rise and fall |
-115 |
-120 |
-100 |
0 |
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.
China: Weather conditions in China's production areas have returned to normal, and raw material output has also gradually recovered. Cutting has been stopped in China's Yunnan production areas, and the price of raw material glue has not yet been available.
|
price type |
of 12 December |
December 13 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
raw material prices |
Thailand |
glue |
52.4 |
52.5 |
0.1 |
baht/kg |
|
cup glue |
44.45 |
44.7 |
0.25 |
baht/kg |
||
|
Yunnan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
rubber block |
10000 |
10000 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Hainan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
12100 |
12100 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory) |
11700 |
11700 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
Demand side: Currently, the demand for terminal stores in the semi-steel tire market is relatively weak, with few goods shipped, and the main reason is to make up for shortages. In terms of agents, most of the tasks have been completed, and current replenishment is mainly piecemeal. In addition, some agents have expectations for the next month's price. I have bearish expectations and wait for the guidance of the market's low-price policy.
Futures spot price list
|
price type |
of 12 December |
December 13 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
price of finished products |
Shandong |
China All Latex |
12533 |
12433 |
-100 |
Yuan/ton |
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 standard glue |
1470 |
1455 |
-15 |
us dollars/ton |
|
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
11820 |
11720 |
-100 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Hainan |
9650 |
9600 |
-50 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk |
10150 |
10150 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
the current price difference |
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
1770 |
1685 |
-85 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Main force-China All Latex |
1057 |
972 |
-85 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
relevant exchange rate |
us dollar against the RMB |
7.1951 |
7.1981 |
0.003 |
Yuan |
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB |
0.2051 |
0.205 |
-0.0001 |
Yuan |
||
market outlook
Judging from the current supply port situation, the recent decline in output in China's production areas is in conflict with the expectation of a gradual increase in output in overseas production areas at the end of the rainy season. The purchase price of raw materials is basically in a narrow range of fluctuations, and upstream production profits are still At a relatively low level, there is limited room for loosening raw material costs. Continuous purchases of goods on the demand-side market are showing signs of fatigue. The production and sales pressure of all-steel tire companies has become prominent, and production cuts have increased, which in turn suppresses their sentiment on raw material procurement. Expectations for improving transactions in the spot market are limited, and the continued decline in port inventories has been suppressed. On the whole, if there is no obvious long-short stimulus on the supply and demand sides of the Tianjiao market, the Tianjiao market will be weak in driving upward and downward, and it is expected that most of the activities will continue to fluctuate.