[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (December 19)
92,154 
December 19, 2023, 4:46 PM Analysis of natural rubber market price on December 19
index
On December 19, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1465/ton, down US$5/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.34%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date |
Previous period: RU Futures |
||||||
|
main contract |
closing price |
||||||
|
opening price |
Low-end price |
High-end price |
closing price |
RU01 |
RU05 |
RU09 |
|
|
December 19 |
13595 |
13515 |
13645 |
13580 |
13410 |
13580 |
13690 |
|
December 18 |
13490 |
13385 |
13630 |
13605 |
13440 |
13605 |
13715 |
|
rise and fall |
105 |
130 |
15 |
-25 |
-30 |
-25 |
-25 |
|
date |
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price) |
|||
|
NR main force |
NR01 |
NR05 |
NR09 |
|
|
December 19 |
10385 |
10240 |
10740 |
11155 |
|
December 18 |
10405 |
10260 |
10750 |
11155 |
|
rise and fall |
-20 |
-20 |
-10 |
0 |
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Rainfall weather in foreign production areas has eased, and some areas have begun to increase in a narrow range. A few areas still have the impact of rainfall, and raw material prices fluctuate within a narrow range.
China: Cooling and rainfall are increasing in Hainan production areas, and cutting is approaching to be stopped. Cutting in Yunnan production areas in China has been stopped, and the price of raw material glue is not yet available.
|
price type |
December 18 |
December 19 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
raw material prices |
Thailand |
glue |
53.3 |
53.3 |
0 |
baht/kg |
|
cup glue |
44.65 |
44.65 |
0 |
baht/kg |
||
|
Yunnan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
rubber block |
10000 |
10000 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Hainan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
12100 |
11600 |
-500 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory) |
11800 |
11800 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
Demand: At present, the shipping pressure of all-steel tires continues to increase, the start-up continues to fall compared with the previous period, and other factories continue to operate at low levels. In terms of the market, the overall demand for domestic sales is weak, and agents are not motivated to replenish goods. They mainly digest inventories and recover money. In addition, the export market is currently facing certain pressure. Freight charges on Mediterranean routes, European industries and African routes have been increased, which has caused a certain drag on the export market.
Futures spot price list
|
price type |
December 18 |
December 19 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
price of finished products |
Shandong |
China All Latex |
12433 |
12533 |
100 |
Yuan/ton |
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 standard glue |
1470 |
1465 |
-5 |
us dollars/ton |
|
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
11760 |
11750 |
-10 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Hainan |
9700 |
9700 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk |
10250 |
10250 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
the current price difference |
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
1820 |
1830 |
10 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Main force-China All Latex |
1047 |
1047 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
relevant exchange rate |
us dollar against the RMB |
7.1455 |
7.1585 |
0.013 |
Yuan |
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB |
0.2081 |
0.2082 |
0.0001 |
Yuan |
||
market outlook
Judging from the current supply port situation, the recent entry of China's production areas into a cut-off period has temporarily provided support to the cost side. However, overseas production areas are still in the peak season for rubber tapping, and upstream support has begun to decline, and there is room for loosening raw material costs. The overall demand for domestic sales on the demand-side is weak, and agents are not enthusiastic about replenishing goods. They mainly digest inventory and recover money, which relatively suppresses their sentiment on raw material procurement, and the continued reduction of port inventories is suppressed. On the whole, with both supply and demand weak, the natural rubber market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term.