[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Weekly Review (December 21)
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December 21, 2023, 4:18 PM Figure 1: Shandong market price of STR20 MIX Figure 2: Zhejiang market price of ordinary bulk imported from Thailand
dry rubber
Natural rubber market prices rose significantly this week. Judging from the current supply port situation, production in China's production areas have recently entered a cut-off period, and some semi-steel tire companies have sufficient foreign trade orders, and some companies have scheduled orders for 2024. Automobile production and sales data are relatively optimistic, and recent rumors of purchasing and selling have boosted speculation. There are expectations for negative news on rubber fundamentals in the future. Expectations for continued improvement in rubber prices are weak, and short-term upward or more dependent on news stimulation.
natural latex
This week, China's concentrated milk offers rose rapidly at the end of the week. Recently, futures prices fluctuated upwards, which significantly boosted market confidence. In the short term, the raw material market in Southeast Asian producing areas is still showing an upward trend. Coupled with the appreciation of the Thai baht, pressure on factory processing costs, US dollar shipping and cargo offers are on the rise. With no pressure on spot supply in the sales area, traders offer slightly increased shipments, and some of them are reluctant to sell. The "buy up" sentiment of downstream product companies is reflected, and the enthusiasm for inquiries and buying has improved. The focus of market negotiations on real orders has increased.
Market outlook forecast:
1、国外产区降雨天气或存缓和预期，季节性上量阶段，原料价格支撑预期走弱；
2、预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率或将下滑；
3、中国青岛库存量或存去库趋势，高库存压力有所缓和；
4. Exchange rate, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, etc.
