[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (January 17)
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January 17, 2024, 4:26 PM Analysis of natural rubber market price on January 17
index
On January 17, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1545/ton, down US$10/ton from the previous trading day, or 0.64%.
market analysis
futures market
|
date |
Previous period: RU Futures |
||||||
|
main contract |
closing price |
||||||
|
opening price |
Low-end price |
High-end price |
closing price |
RU01 |
RU05 |
RU09 |
|
|
on January 17 |
13855 |
13735 |
13950 |
13775 |
14875 |
13775 |
13885 |
|
on January 16 |
13750 |
13710 |
13915 |
13875 |
14890 |
13875 |
13985 |
|
rise and fall |
105 |
25 |
35 |
-100 |
-15 |
-100 |
-100 |
|
date |
Previous period energy: NR futures (closing price) |
|||
|
NR main force |
NR01 |
NR05 |
NR09 |
|
|
on January 17 |
11175 |
11450 |
11290 |
11400 |
|
on January 16 |
11240 |
11450 |
11340 |
11290 |
|
rise and fall |
-65 |
0 |
-50 |
110 |
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: The production situation in southern Thailand has been affected, which supports raw materials to remain firm to a certain extent and strong cost support.
China: China's production areas have entered a cut-off period, and raw material prices have remained stable.
|
price type |
on January 16 |
on January 17 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
raw material prices |
Thailand |
glue |
60 |
60.7 |
0.7 |
baht/kg |
|
cup glue |
47.6 |
48 |
0.4 |
baht/kg |
||
|
Yunnan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
rubber block |
10400 |
10400 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
Hainan |
Glue (into the dry glue factory) |
11400 |
11400 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory) |
12400 |
12400 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
||
Demand: Currently, most semi-steel tire companies have relatively smooth internal and external sales and shipments. Due to limited production capacity, there is a shortage of inventory for some conventional models. In terms of the market, considering the possibility that the overall inventory of enterprises may be tight after the holiday, some agents of semi-steel tires will replenish their stocks moderately. However, terminal demand is insufficient, shipments are relatively slow, and the overall inventory of agents is in an improved state.
Futures spot price list
|
price type |
on January 16 |
on January 17 |
rise and fall |
units |
||
|
price of finished products |
Shandong |
China All Latex |
12933 |
12933 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 standard glue |
1555 |
1545 |
-10 |
us dollars/ton |
|
|
Qingdao |
Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
12330 |
12300 |
-30 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Hainan |
10700 |
10700 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Ningbo |
Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk |
11700 |
11700 |
0 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
the current price difference |
Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue |
1545 |
1475 |
-70 |
Yuan/ton |
|
|
Main force-China All Latex |
942 |
842 |
-100 |
Yuan/ton |
||
|
relevant exchange rate |
us dollar against the RMB |
7.1996 |
7.2091 |
0.0095 |
Yuan |
|
|
Thai Baht to RMB |
0.2087 |
0.207 |
-0.0017 |
Yuan |
||
market outlook
After the recent suspension of cutting in China's production areas, overseas northeastern Thailand and Vietnam's production areas have successively entered the season of cutting and production reduction in the middle and late of this month. As the main supply, the output in the southern part of Thailand's production areas also fell short of expectations. There are tightening expectations on the supply side, and raw material prices are easy to rise but hard to fall. The supply side is favorable to support the narrow rise in rubber prices; while downstream demand is slightly tired. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, actual digestion is relatively limited. On the whole, the current natural rubber market lacks obvious market guidance, and the fundamentals coexist or operate in shock. In the short term, it is expected that the natural rubber market will lack obvious driving forces or be dominated by shocks.