[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Weekly Review (January 25)

Figure 1: Shandong market price of STR20 MIX                                      Figure 2: Zhejiang market price of ordinary bulk imported from Thailand

dry rubber

Natural rubber market prices fell within a narrow range this week. After the suspension of cutting in China's production areas, overseas northeastern Thailand and Vietnam's production areas have successively entered the season of suspension of cutting and production reduction in the middle and late of this month. As the main supply, the output in the southern part of Thailand's production areas also fell short of expectations. There are tightening expectations on the supply side, and the raw material side has been maintained. In a bullish state; However, downstream demand is slightly tired. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the seasonal off-season starts will bring drag on rubber to a certain extent. Short-term good supply transmission logic digestion, the macro atmosphere will affect the mood in the market, and rubber prices will fall. However, raw material prices continue to rise, and there is still strong support below the cost end.

natural latex

This week, China's concentrated milk offers rose within a narrow range. The cut-off period for Vietnam's production areas is approaching. Supply from Thailand's production areas is gradually tightening. Processing plants have plans to hoard raw materials. The purchase price of glue is expected to still have room to rise, and the cost side is strong; The supply of resources in the sales area is relatively small, and traders mainly hold forward orders. When import costs are high, traders have no intention of shipping at low prices. However, downstream product companies have gradually entered a holiday state, and the market demand margin has weakened. Procurement of spot natural latex has been significantly weakened. The market situation has been slightly deadlocked, price fluctuations have been narrow, and the transaction atmosphere has been cold.

Market outlook forecast:

1、国外产区原料产出收紧预期明显，成本支撑维持高位；

2、预计下周期轮胎样本企业开工率或存小幅走低预期；

3、中国青岛库存量或存去库趋势，高库存压力有所缓和；

4. Exchange rate, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, etc.