Review of the Spring Festival holiday

During the Spring Festival holiday, industrial products, major overseas commodities, performed relatively well. In terms of energy, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both rose by more than 4%, but natural gas prices in the United States and Europe fell; in terms of nonferrous metals and precious metals, the United States CPI data exceeded expectations, driving the US dollar index to strengthen again, and gold prices fell under pressure. The news that "Wa State collects a 30% physical tax on tin concentrate exports" disturbed expectations, and LME tin prices surged sharply; in terms of agricultural products, ICE cotton rose sharply, with Japanese rubber futures and Singapore No. 20 rubber futures both rising.

In terms of foreign economy, the U.S. inflation data in January exceeded expectations, indicating that the Federal Reserve's task of reducing inflation has not yet been completed, and inflation has strong resilience, especially residential inflation is still strong; affected by the slower-than-expected decline in U.S. inflation, the market interest rate cut expectations have cooled down.

China's economy is recovering well, and the travel and consumption economies have further recovered. In terms of population movements, passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel period may hit a record high, and cross-regional population movements become more frequent. In terms of consumption, service consumption is booming. Among them, tourism-related consumption performs better, box office revenue and movie-goers hit record highs, and catering and entertainment consumption is also popular.

market outlook

1.  Raw material supply

During the holiday period, Thailand's raw material prices showed a significant upward trend. Among them, the prices of glue and cup glue continued to increase slightly, with increases of 0.60% and 1.02% respectively. It was learned from the Thai market that falling leaves in southern Thailand have intensified, and rubber tapping work in the south may end early at the end of the month. The expected increase in raw material output near the suspension of cutting will drive raw material prices to continue to rise, and the cost side will have strong support for rubber prices.

2.  Downstream starts

Judging from the overall downstream resumption of work, this year's resumption of work is slightly earlier than in previous years. Among them, although China's supporting and replacement demand has cooled down, export shipments are still smooth, and the inventory of finished products in each enterprise is at a low level, further pushing up the enthusiasm for resuming work in processing plants. In terms of the resumption of work time, the earliest resumption of work will be resumed on the third day of the third day, and the latest resumption of work will be on the seventh and eighth days of the seventh and eighth days of the lunar calendar; in terms of all-steel enterprises, there has been little change compared with previous years, with the earliest resumption of work on the third day of the third day, and most of them concentrated on the sixth to eighth day of the lunar calendar; so far, the operating rates of all-steel and semi-steel have increased significantly compared with those before the holiday.

3.  Future outlook

During the Spring Festival, processing factories and traders were basically closed, and actual order transactions were also sporadic. Most orders before the year were delayed until delivery after the year, which in turn had a relatively limited impact on the natural rubber market. The overall price fluctuations of various rubber species in the spot market are limited. After the Spring Festival, as the resumption of work and production began, both the supply and demand sides showed strong support expectations. Tianjiao stocks may be in the de-warehouse cycle. Coupled with irregular interference from collecting and selling stocks, rubber prices may have strong support after the year. Futures will rise after the opening, expectations are heating up.