[Industry News]: CICC: The Federal Reserve will hardly cut interest rates in March
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February 19, 2024, 5:09 PM
The CICC research report believes that the Federal Reserve will basically not cut interest rates in March, and the interest rate cut in May is not a "certainty". If the U.S. economy and inflation remain resilient, the Federal Reserve may be more cautious on the road to interest rates. Looking at the general direction, we still believe that U.S. inflation will slow down this year. However, from a rhythm point of view, we believe that there is a lot of uncertainty. The reason is that the recent Red Sea navigation safety issues have increased supply chain risks. Coupled with the resilience of the U.S. economic aggregate demand and the still-stable labor market, these may increase the stickiness of inflation. If the stability of supply declines and demand becomes resilient, then the Fed's easy interest rate cuts may lead to further strengthening of demand and increase the risk of "secondary inflation".