I. Overview of the egg market this month

Egg market prices have bottomed out and rebounded this month, with a strong wait-and-see mood and a general trading atmosphere in the market. The average price of this month in the main producing areas is 4.69 yuan / jin, which is 0.07 yuan higher than that of last month. The average price of red eggs is 4.69 yuan / jin, and the average price of pink eggs is 4.71 yuan / jin, with a price difference of 0.02 yuan / jin. Egg prices hit bottom in early days, affected by the continued downturn in demand, egg prices in producing areas remained in a state of decline, downstream dealers were cautious to take goods, mainly to digest inventory first, while the prices of substitutes such as vegetables and meat were weak, and terminal consumption was relatively weak. Egg prices bottomed out in the last ten days, and the cooling weather boosted the storage of eggs, increased sentiment at the breeding end, heightened bullish sentiment towards the future, bottomed out mentality in trade links and terminals, improved in the market, and prices rose slightly.

Egg price index trend chart

II. Analysis of the fundamentals of the egg market this month

2.1 supply side analysis

According to Cold chain Duoduo statistics, as of November, the stock of laying hens in the country was about 1.15 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.17%, a year-on-year increase. 2.97%. Most of the new laying hens opened in November were fenced hens in July this year. The sales of hens in July 2023 was 38.4 million, an increase of 500000, or 1.35%, over June. Thus, it is estimated that the number of new laying hens increased slightly in November, and the stock of laying hens is more abundant. Egg prices began to rebound in the middle of this month, the price of eliminated chickens steadily fell and rose in various places, breeding costs remained high, the enthusiasm of breeding units to clean out chickens was good, while downstream farmers' markets and slaughtering enterprises resisted high-price acquisitions, and there was no significant change in the number of Taobao chickens. As of the end of the month, the number of Taobao chickens is still general, agricultural trade and slaughtering enterprises buy on demand, partly affected by the rise in egg prices, the enthusiasm to participate in the market has slightly improved, while some breeding units have a cherished mood, the number of Amoy chickens is limited. In the later period, with the arrival of the peak season of the egg industry, egg prices continue to rise, which may be beneficial to the price of Taobao chicken.

2.2 demand side analysis

At present, the terminal consumption of eggs is still lukewarm, and the rapid rise in egg prices has led to fear of falling in the trade link, the wait-and-see mood in the market is strong, the acceptance of high-priced eggs by terminal consumption is limited, and the enthusiasm of replenishment downstream has declined. Dealers are also more cautious in buying, and some traders have a rising mentality such as sparing sales. With the cooling of the weather, some supermarkets and e-commerce platforms have a slight increase in the number of periodic replenishment, but the enthusiasm of taking goods downstream is general, mostly along with the purchase and sale, and the trading activity is relatively general. At present, the meat price in the superposition market is relatively low, which has a certain impact on the egg market, consumers can choose to enhance, and the demand for eggs is still low. on the whole, the market terminal demand continues the off-season performance, and the boost is not obvious.

2.3 Analysis of vehicle arrivals in sales area

According to the statistics of Cold chain Duoduo, 495 vehicles arrived in the Beijing market this month, 40 fewer than last month, and the number of vehicles in the market at the beginning of the month was normal. However, due to the general digestion downstream, the enthusiasm of traders in taking goods decreased, and the amount of cars arriving in the market decreased by the end of the month. The average daily number of vehicles is about 16 vehicles.

III. Analysis of the egg market this month

3.1 Analysis of spot price of eggs this month

In terms of producing areas: the average price in the main producing areas this month was 4.69 yuan / jin, up 0.07 yuan / jin or 0.02% over the previous month. During the month, the price in the main producing areas decreased first and then increased. In the first ten days, the price of eggs in the producing areas has fallen near the cost line, the demand side continues to be depressed, traders are cautious about taking goods, and the market is generally out of stock. In the last ten days, the rising mood of each link increased, the egg price continued to strengthen, the breeding end shipped with homeopathy, and the inventory pressure decreased, but the downstream buying was still more cautious, and the market was lukewarm.

Sales area: the average price of the main sales area this month is 4.73 yuan / jin, up 0.16 yuan / jin over the previous month, or 0.04%. During the month, the price of the main selling area runs with the weakness of the producing area. Affected by the low egg price in the production area in the first ten days, the market in the sales area was weak, and the price fell with the production area. In the last ten days, with the strong operation of the production area, traders mainly buy on demand, and then as the egg price continues to rise, the market has a falling mood after fear of rising, and the enthusiasm of receiving goods is weakened.

Price trend chart of main egg producing areas

Price trend chart of egg main selling area

3.2 Analysis of egg futures market this month

The main contract of egg futures this month showed a trend of falling first and then rising. As of November 29, 2023, it closed at 4226 yuan / 500kg, the lowest closing price this month was 4176 yuan / 500kg, the highest closing price was 4393 yuan / 500kg, and the price difference was 217yuan / 500kg. Kilos. Spot prices showed a volatile downward trend in the first ten days of the month, the market was lukewarm, the inventory pressure gradually increased, and the futures market fell sharply under the influence of the spot market. In the middle of the month, the spot price of eggs showed a fluctuating upward trend, each link sporadic replenishment increased, the market delivery slightly improved, the futures market was also boosted by the spot market, gradually fluctuating upward. By the end of the month, the spot price of eggs is still strong and rising, and all aspects of trading are more active, but the futures market is mainly adjusted by shocks, and the range of adjustment is small.

IV. egg export data

According to customs data, China exported a total of 11471.474 tons of fresh eggs in October 2023, with an export value of US $19659130 and an average export price of US $1713.741 per ton. the export volume increased by 676.501 tons over September and 1475.457 tons over October last year, and the cumulative export volume in 2023 increased by 25.93% over the same period last year.

4.1 Export volume

4.2 Export amount

4.3. Average export price

V. Future forecast

On the supply side, the number of newly opened laying hens is sufficient recently, eggs are easy to be stored due to temperature, and the supply of eggs in producing areas is relatively stable. It is predicted that there will be little pressure on the supply side of eggs next month. In terms of knockout chickens, the recent performance of the number of eliminated chickens is average, the price of Taobao chicken is stable and strong, agricultural trade and slaughtering enterprises are mostly acquired on demand, while breeding units cherish the mood of sale, and the number of Amoy chickens is limited. Generally speaking, the supply of goods in the producing areas is relatively stable and the supply side is relatively sufficient.

From the point of view of demand, the weak performance of demand in the off-season continues, catering and schools and institutions mainly purchase on demand, and the prices of meat substitutes are not expected to improve, egg consumption will still be affected, the follow-up of demand in the end market is limited, and most of them are cautious, so the demand side is expected to change little.

From the market point of view, the current egg prices in some production areas are gradually rising, some links are looking forward to a strong mood, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is slightly increased, and the supply circulation is expected to be better.

Overall, the egg market is expected to rise next month, the performance of red powder may be different, the adjustment range is about 0.04 yuan / jin, and the average price of the main production is 4.60-4.70 yuan / jin.