I. Overview of the egg market this month

The egg market price showed a trend of rising first and then falling this month. Affected by the long-term low price in the first ten days of the month, dealers and food enterprises increased their volume, the trading atmosphere in the egg market improved compared with the previous period, and demand remained depressed in the last ten days of the month. Egg price pressure fell again. The average price of this month's main producing areas is 3.45 yuan / jin, up 0.14 yuan / jin compared with last month, the average price of red eggs is 3.41 yuan / jin, the average price of pink eggs is 3.47 yuan / jin, the price difference is 0.06 yuan / jin. Egg prices as a whole showed a trend of rising at first and then falling this month. at present, the inventory pressure in producing areas has increased, the supply of eggs is more adequate, and the egg market is affected by negative factors such as slight increase in supply, depressed demand, increased inventory pressure, and so on. Downstream dealers are more cautious in taking goods, mainly to digest inventory first. At the same time, it is still in the off-season of market consumption, the terminal demand is limited, the enthusiasm of downstream consumers to take goods is not high, each link with the purchase and sale, the market trading atmosphere is weak.

Egg price index trend chart

II. Analysis of the fundamentals of the egg market this month

2.1 supply side analysis

According to the statistics of Cold chain Duoduo, by the beginning of March 2023, the stock of laying hens in China was about 1.237 billion, and most of the new laying hens opened in March were fattened hens around November 2023, the feed cost continued to decline in November, and the risk aversion psychology of the breeding end turned weak. the enthusiasm of fencing has not changed much. The sales volume of hens in November 2023 was 43.23 million, an increase of 600000, or 1.42%, compared with October. Thus, it is estimated that the number of new laying hens has increased month-on-month this month, and the overall stock of laying hens has continued to increase. Egg prices first rose and then fell this month, Taobao chicken prices were weakly affected by egg prices, the acquisition enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises was general, downstream demand follow-up was limited, farmers' willingness to clean out chickens increased slightly, the market was dominated by live poultry consumption, food enterprises and farmers' markets also purchased on demand, and prices were in line with the market. To sum up, the number of new laying hens this month is still larger than the theoretical elimination, and the supply of eggs is abundant.

2.2 demand side analysis

This month, the performance of the demand side is general, the enthusiasm of taking goods in each link is not high, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the terminal consumer demand is limited. At present, the mood of each link continues to wait and see, with the weak adjustment of prices in various regions, the risk aversion psychology of some traders, the willingness of downstream dealers to receive goods becomes cautious, at the same time, the inventory of each link has increased, and the trading atmosphere has been weakened compared with the previous period. superimposed close to Ching Ming Festival, some food enterprises open a small stock, there is little risk of a sharp drop in market prices, as a whole, the overall performance of the demand side is still weak.

2.3 Analysis of vehicle arrivals in sales area

According to cold chain statistics, 425 vehicles have arrived in the Beijing market this month, with an average daily arrival of about 15 vehicles, an increase of 271 vehicles, or 56.82%, over last month. This month, the Beijing market is relatively stable, the enthusiasm of receiving goods in the trade link is general, the number of cars arriving in the month is relatively normal, the downstream digestion speed is not high, and most traders are mainly active in cleaning up inventory.

III. Analysis of the egg market this month

3.1 Analysis of spot price of eggs this month

In terms of producing areas: the average price in the main producing areas this month was 3.45 yuan / jin, up 0.11 yuan / jin over the previous month, or 3.29%. During the month, the price in the main producing areas showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In the first ten days, egg prices in producing areas rose slightly, the supply pressure eased slightly, inventory in producing areas fell to a low level, and there was a strong wait-and-see mood in all links, mainly to actively deal with inventory. In the last ten days, the egg price is weak, the downstream buying is still more cautious, the market sentiment is weakening, and the trading of each link is lukewarm.

Sales area: the average price in the main selling area this month is 3.47 yuan / jin, up 0.06 yuan / jin over last month, or 1.76%. During the month, the price in the main selling area showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Affected by the rising egg price in the producing area in the first ten days, the market trading atmosphere has improved. In the last ten days, the price of the selling area is weak under the influence of egg price, the downstream is cautious to take goods, the inventory of each link increases slightly, the market transaction is light, and the egg price is adjusted by shock.

Price trend chart of main egg producing areas

Price trend chart of egg main selling area

3.2 Analysis of egg futures market this month

The egg futures contract 2405 showed a downward trend this month, closing at 3323 yuan / 500kg as of March 29th, 2024. The lowest closing price this month was 3323 yuan / 500kg, the highest closing price was 3655 yuan / 500kg, and the price difference was 332 yuan / 500kg. Kilos. Spot prices showed a slight upward trend in the first ten days of the month, the delivery of goods in the market improved, the inventory pressure decreased, and the futures market showed a volatile upward trend affected by the spot market. Late in the month, with the weak operation of egg prices, the performance of terminal demand is general, mainly to digest existing inventory, sporadic replenishment trading in many places, the futures market shows a trend of falling first and then rising, and the range of adjustment is small.

IV. egg export data

According to customs data, in February 2024, China exported a total of 9677.344 tons of fresh eggs, with an export value of US $14594880, with an average export price of US $1508.049 per tonne. The export volume decreased by 2388.411 tons compared with January, and the export volume decreased by 19.80% compared with the same period last year. Year-on-year decrease of 10.62% the cumulative export volume in 2024 increased by 9.58% over the same period last year.

4.1 Export volume

4.2 Export amount

4.3. Average export price

V. Future forecast

From the supply side, the current stock of laying hens is still in a slight upward trend, the Taobao chicken market is stable and weak, affected by egg prices, the willingness of farmers to clean out chickens is slightly increased, the acquisition enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is general, and the downstream demand follow-up is limited. The market inventory in some production areas has increased, the supply of goods in the production areas is still relatively sufficient, and it is expected that the supply of eggs will still increase slightly next month.

From the point of view of demand, it is still in the off-season of the traditional industry, the terminal demand has not significantly improved, the downstream dealers and trade links are cautious, most of the major merchants are mainly purchasing on demand, the delivery of goods in many places has slowed down, and there are surplus goods in each link. most of the major merchants are mainly purchasing on demand, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened, taking into account the future boost demand or increase by the Qingming Festival, the market is bullish. The demand side is expected to have a good expectation next month.

From the market point of view, the weak operation of egg prices, each link is still bearish mentality, production areas are more positive shipments, terminal replenishment is relatively cautious, supply circulation may be affected by this.

On the whole, the egg market is expected to be stable and strong next month, and the performance of pink may be different, with an adjustment rate of 0.10 yuan / jin.