I. Overview of the egg market this month

The egg market price shows a falling-rising-falling trend this month. Affected by the phased low egg price in the first ten days of the month, the breeding end must cherish the mood of selling, local inventory is at a high level, market trading is lukewarm, and terminal demand is still weak in the last ten days of the month. market bearish sentiment intensified, egg prices low shock. The average price of this month in the main producing areas is 3.32 yuan / jin, which is 0.12 yuan lower than that of last month. The average price of red eggs is 3.33 yuan / jin, and the average price of pink eggs is 3.29 yuan / jin, with a price difference of 0.04 yuan / jin. Egg prices as a whole showed a trend of rise and fall this month. At present, the stock of laying hens in producing areas is at a high level in recent years, breeding units are more homeopathic, inventory pressure still exists in some producing areas, the supply of eggs is more adequate, and the supply side remains loose. The performance of the market demand side is general, and the downstream dealers are willing to receive goods cautiously. Although egg prices have risen slightly under the influence of festivals, in most areas, goods are generally purchased on demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the market.

Egg price index trend chart

II. Analysis of the fundamentals of the egg market this month

2.1 supply side analysis

According to the statistics of Cold chain Duoduo, by the end of April 2024, the stock of laying hens in the country was about 1.242 billion, and most of the new laying hens opened in April were fenced around December 2023. The profits of laying hens continued to decline in December, and the mood of breeding units was slightly cautious. The sales of chicken seedlings in December 2023 was 42.12 million, a decrease of 1 million from November, or 2.32%. It is estimated that the number of new laying hens opened this month decreased slightly from the previous month, but the number of new production is still higher than the theoretical knockout, and the supply continues to increase. The egg price is weak this month, the price of Taobao chicken is weakly adjusted due to the influence of egg price, the acquisition enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is general, the downstream demand is limited, the willingness of farmers to clean up chicken is slightly increased, the market is dominated by live poultry consumption, and food enterprises and farmers' markets also purchase on demand, and prices follow the market. To sum up, the stock of laying hens is still rising slightly this month, and the supply of eggs is abundant.

2.2 demand side analysis

This month, the performance of the demand side is lukewarm, the enthusiasm of taking goods in each link is not high, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the terminal consumer demand is limited. At present, the mood of each link continues to wait and see, with the weak adjustment of prices in various regions during the month, the risk aversion psychology of some traders, the willingness of downstream dealers to receive goods has become cautious, at the same time, the inventory of each link has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has been weakened compared with the previous period. With the arrival of the May Day festival, terminal links such as merchant supermarkets and farmers' markets are still in stock demand, and there is little risk of a sharp drop in market prices. The overall demand-side performance is still weak.

2.3 Analysis of vehicle arrivals in sales area

According to cold chain statistics, 461 vehicles arrived in the Beijing market this month, with an average daily arrival of about 15 vehicles, an increase of 36 vehicles, or 8.47 percent, over last month. This month, the Beijing market is relatively stable, the enthusiasm of receiving goods in the trade link is general, the number of cars arriving in the month is relatively normal, the downstream digestion speed is not high, and most traders are mainly active in cleaning up inventory.

III. Analysis of the egg market this month

3.1 Analysis of spot price of eggs this month

In terms of producing areas: the average price in the main producing areas this month was 3.32 yuan / jin, down 0.12 yuan / jin compared with the previous month, or 3.51%. The price in the main producing areas showed a trend of rise and fall during the month. In the first ten days, the egg price shock in the production areas is weak, the inventory in the production areas has increased, and the wait-and-see mood in each link is strong, mainly to actively deal with inventory. The price of eggs is stable in the last ten days, and the downstream buying and purchasing is still more cautious, and the trading of each link is lukewarm.

Sales area: the average price in the main selling area this month is 3.30 yuan / jin, down 0.17 yuan / jin from last month, down 4.89%. The price in the main selling area showed a rising and falling trend during the month. Affected by the weak egg price in the producing area in the first ten days, the market trading atmosphere is relatively weak. In the last ten days, the price of the selling area is weak due to the weak price of eggs, the downstream is cautious to take goods, the inventory of each link is still in existence, the market transaction is light, and the egg price is fluctuated.

Price trend chart of main egg producing areas

Price trend chart of egg main selling area

3.2 Analysis of egg futures market this month

The egg futures contract 2409 showed a low and fluctuating trend this month, closing at 3978 yuan / 500kg as of April 29th, with the lowest closing price of 3163 yuan / 500kg this month and the highest closing price of 3858 yuan / 500kg, with a price difference of 695 yuan / 500kg. Spot prices showed a volatile downward trend in the first ten days of the month, the market transaction was lukewarm, the inventory pressure increased slightly, and the futures market showed a weak trend affected by the spot market. Late in the month, with the egg price shock adjustment, the terminal demand performance is general, mainly to digest the existing inventory, more sporadic replenishment trading, the futures market shows a weak trend of shock, the adjustment range is small.

IV. egg export data

According to customs data, in March 2024, China exported a total of 11660.494 tons of fresh eggs, with an export value of US $16544511, with an average export price of US $1418.852 per ton. the export volume increased by 1983.15 tons compared with February, and the export volume increased by 20.49% month-on-month. Year-on-year decrease of 3.18% the cumulative export volume in 2024 increased by 4.76% over the same period last year.

4.1 Export volume

4.2 Export amount

4.3. Average export price

V. Future forecast

From the supply side, the current number of newly opened laying hens is still larger than the theoretical number of eliminated hens, the stock of laying hens is still expected to increase, and the enthusiasm of farmers for elimination is increased, but the acquisition enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is general. The downstream demand follow-up is limited, the market inventory in some production areas has increased, the supply of goods in the production areas is still relatively sufficient, and it is expected that the supply side of eggs will still be more relaxed next month.

From the point of view of demand, the enthusiasm of end consumers to take goods is not high, and each link is still dominated by active inventory clearance, major merchants purchase more on demand, downstream dealers are still cautious to receive goods, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively insipid. With the arrival of the May Day holiday, the mentality of the market is strong, but the terminal demand is lukewarm, considering the warming weather in the future, the difficulty of storage increases, and the purchasing power of the market decreases. The demand side is expected to continue its weak performance next month.

From the market point of view, the weak operation of egg prices, each link is still bearish mentality, production areas are more positive shipments, terminal replenishment is relatively cautious, supply circulation may be affected by this.

Overall, the egg market is expected to be stable and strong next month, the performance of red powder may be different, the adjustment range is about 0.10 yuan / jin, and the average price of the main production is 3.30-3.40 yuan / jin.