Egg Monthly: Egg prices rose first and then fell. There was not much pressure on inventories in the production areas, and the market sold them as they were picked.
1 
May 29, 2024, 5:14 PM I. Overview of the egg market this month
The egg market price first rose and then fell this month. In the first ten days of the month, the pace of shipment in the producing areas was fast, the inventory pressure was alleviated, the market trading improved, the superimposed market sentiment was promoted, and the egg price rose strongly. As egg prices rose to phased highs in late October, the terminal's acceptance of high-priced supply was limited, downstream traders became cautious, and the terminal focused on digesting inventory. The average price of this month's main producing areas is 3.91 yuan / jin, up 0.77 yuan / jin compared with last month, the average price of red eggs is 3.87 yuan / jin, the average price of pink eggs is 3.95 yuan / jin, the price difference is 0.08 yuan / jin. Egg prices as a whole rose first and then fell this month. At present, the stock of laying hens continues to rise slightly compared with the previous month, with more homeopathic shipments, less inventory pressure in producing areas, and loose egg supply. The performance of the market demand side is general, the replenishment enthusiasm of each link is not high, mainly to digest inventory, some links are still bearish mood, the terminal demand is lukewarm.
Egg price index trend chart
II. Analysis of the fundamentals of the egg market this month
2.1 supply side analysis
According to the statistics of Cold chain Duoduo, by the end of May 2024, the stock of laying hens in the country was about 1.242 billion, and most of the new laying hens opened in May were fenced hens around January 2024, and the egg price and feed cost decreased in January, so the reduction of breeding profit was not obvious. The sales volume of chicken seedlings in January 2024 was 41.98 million, a decrease of 140000 from the previous month, or 0.33%. Thus, it is estimated that the number of new laying hens opened this month decreased slightly from the previous month, but the number of new laying hens is still higher than the theoretical knockout, still at a high level in the same period, and the supply continues to increase slightly. The price of eggs has risen mainly this month, and the price of Taobao chicken is stable and strong under the influence of egg price. at present, the availability of old chickens is relatively limited, and the sentiment of breeding units is obvious, while the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is general, and food enterprises and farmers' markets also purchase on demand, and prices follow the market. To sum up, the stock of laying hens this month is still higher than the theoretical elimination, and the supply of eggs is sufficient.
2.2 demand side analysis
The performance of the demand side of this month is relatively general, currently in the seasonal off-season of the egg market, the wait-and-see mood of each link is strong, and the terminal consumer demand is limited. At present, there is still a bearish mentality in the market. As prices in various regions continue to be strong during the month, some traders have a risk aversion mentality, downstream dealers are willing to be cautious, affected by the weather, egg storage is limited, and the market trading atmosphere has slowed down. with the arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal links such as Shang Chao and farmers' market are still in stock demand, and there is little risk of a sharp drop in market prices. The overall performance of the demand side is lukewarm.
2.3 Analysis of vehicle arrivals in sales area
According to cold chain statistics, 498 vehicles arrived in the Beijing market this month, with an average daily arrival of about 17 vehicles, an increase of 36 vehicles, or 7.74 percent, over last month. The delivery of goods in the Beijing market is relatively general this month, the enthusiasm of receiving goods in the trade link is OK, the volume of cars arriving in the month is relatively normal, the digestion speed downstream is general, and most traders are mainly active in cleaning up inventory.
III. Analysis of the egg market this month
3.1 Analysis of spot price of eggs this month
In terms of producing areas: the average price in the main producing areas this month was 3.91 yuan / jin, up 0.77 yuan / jin over the previous month, or 24.52%. During the month, the price in the main producing areas showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In the first ten days, egg prices in the production areas rose mainly, the inventory pressure in the production areas slowed down, and the bearish sentiment in each link was obvious, mainly to actively deal with inventory. Egg prices rose first and then fell in the last ten days, downstream traders were more cautious in buying, and the market investment was lukewarm.
Sales area: the average price in the main selling area this month is 3.88 yuan / jin, up 0.53 yuan / jin over the previous month, or 16.06%. The price in the main selling area rose mainly during the month. Affected by the rising egg price in the producing area in the first ten days, the market trading atmosphere is OK. In the last ten days, the price in the selling area is affected by the first rise and then fall in the egg price in the production area, showing a concussive adjustment trend, the downstream taking goods is still cautious, the inventory pressure of each link is not great, the market transaction is OK, the egg price shock adjustment.
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Comparison of monthly average price in egg market |
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Area |
Market |
May 29th |
April twenty _ ninth |
Rise and fall |
Remarks |
|
East China |
Nantong Hai'an |
4.10 |
3.30 |
0.8 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
Ningjin, Dezhou |
3.90 |
3.20 |
0.7 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Suzhou Lingbi |
4.03 |
3.30 |
0.73 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Xuzhou Gunning |
4.07 |
3.33 |
0.74 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Rizhao Lanshan |
4.10 |
3.30 |
0.8 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Jining Surabaya |
4.00 |
3.30 |
0.7 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Central China |
Hubei Xiantao |
3.93 |
3.33 |
0.6 |
Point price with box of eggs |
|
Hubei Xishui |
4.07 |
3.47 |
0.6 |
Point price with box of eggs |
|
|
Xinxiang Chang Heng |
4.10 |
3.30 |
0.8 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Xinyang Gushi |
4.05 |
3.30 |
0.75 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Northeast China |
Harbin Lalin |
4.40 |
3.30 |
1.1 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
Changchun Dehui |
4.50 |
3.30 |
1.2 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Jinzhou Black Mountain |
4.10 |
3.20 |
0.9 |
Packed in boxes to household price |
|
|
Shenyang Liaozhong |
4.30 |
3.40 |
0.9 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
North China |
Shijiazhuang Xinji |
3.51 |
2.96 |
0.55 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
Tang County, Baoding |
4.16 |
3.38 |
0.78 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Cangxian, Cangzhou |
4.10 |
3.30 |
0.8 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
|
Handan Guantao |
3.67 |
3.07 |
0.6 |
Box troika |
|
|
Hengshui Raoyang |
3.51 |
2.96 |
0.55 |
Price of eggs packed in boxes |
|
|
Southwest |
Kunming Guandu |
4.39 |
3.62 |
0.77 |
The basket is loaded to the household price |
|
Wen Jia Fang |
4.20 |
3.40 |
0.8 |
Net weight egg price |
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Price trend chart of main egg producing areas
Price trend chart of egg main selling area
3.2 Analysis of egg futures market this month
The main contract of egg futures this month showed a trend of first rising and then falling, closing at 3939 yuan / 500kg as of May 29th, 2024, the lowest closing price this month was 3915 yuan / 500kg, the highest closing price was 4089 yuan / 500kg, and the price difference was 2409 yuan / 500kg. Kilos. Spot prices showed a strong upward trend in the first ten days of the month, the market trading atmosphere improved, inventory pressure slowed down, and the futures market showed a volatile upward trend affected by the spot market. Late in the month, as the spot price of eggs first rose and then fell, the performance of terminal demand was general, mainly to digest existing inventory, sporadic replenishment trading in many places, the futures market showed a volatile trend, and the adjustment was small.
IV. egg export data
According to customs data, in April 2024, China exported a total of 11112.388 tons of fresh eggs, with an export value of US $15237076, with an average export price of US $1371.179 per ton. the export volume increased by 548.106 tons compared with March, and the export volume decreased by 4.70% month-on-month. Year-on-year increase of 3.86% the cumulative export volume in 2024 increased by 4.53% over the same period last year.
4.1 Export volume
4.2 Export amount
4.3. Average export price
V. Future forecast
From the supply side, the current number of newly opened laying hens is still larger than the theoretical number of eliminated laying hens, and there are still expectations of an increase in the number of laying hens. Due to the relatively limited availability of old laying hens, the general enthusiasm of breeding units, and the sentiment of cherishing sales at the breeding end, downstream demand follow-up is general, market transactions are limited, at the same time, there is little stock pressure in the producing areas, and the supply side of eggs is more adequate. It is expected that the stock of eggs in laying hens will continue to increase next month, and the supply side is still relatively loose.
From the point of view of demand, the speed of goods in the current market is slowing down, downstream dealers are cautious in order to avoid future risks, while the terminal demand is mainly to digest inventory, and the enthusiasm of taking goods in each link is general. With the arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival, the market keeps the price mentality, but the terminal demand is still not as expected, and the overall delivery speed of the market will slow down, taking into account the rising weather in the future, the difficulty of storage, and the decline of market purchasing power. The demand side is expected to be lukewarm next month.
From the market mentality, the egg price is strong, each link is still bearish mentality, production area shipping is more positive, terminal replenishment is relatively cautious, supply circulation may be affected by this.
Overall, the egg market is expected to be stable and strong next month, the performance of red powder may be different, the adjustment range is about 0.10 yuan / jin, and the average price of the main production is 4.10-4.20 yuan / jin.