1. Analysis of Chinese egg market.

1.1. Analysis of egg market price

Egg prices showed a concussive adjustment trend this week, the market trading atmosphere is general, all links are mainly replenished on demand, and some dealers are still partial to the empty mood in the future. According to Cold chain Duoduo statistics, as of Thursday, the average price of red eggs was 4.05 yuan per jin, and the average price of pink eggs was 3.79 yuan per jin, with a price difference of 0.26 yuan per jin, down 0.06 yuan per jin from last Thursday. At present, the trend of slight increase in the stock of laying hens remains unchanged, breeding units are more homeopathic shipments, the inventory pressure of each link is not great, and the supply of eggs remains adequate. The performance of the terminal demand side is lukewarm, currently in the seasonal off-season of the egg market, traders mainly take goods on demand, the terminal delivery speed is general, market sentiment is slow.

Producing area market: the average price of eggs in the main producing areas this Thursday is 4.02 yuan / jin, down 0.05 yuan / jin compared with last Thursday. Prices in the main production areas showed a steady adjustment trend this week, the current inventory pressure in the production areas is not great, the speed of goods in the trade link is general, and some dealers are still partial to the mood of the future. As the current stock of laying hens continues to rise slightly from the previous month, the supply of eggs is more adequate, and the supply of eggs in the producing areas remains loose.

Sales area market: the average price of eggs in the main selling area this Thursday is 4.05 yuan / jin, which is 0.07 yuan / jin higher than that of last Thursday. During the week, the market price in the sales area first fell and then rose, the volume of cars arrived in each region was normal, most of the downstream traders sold along with the purchase, the enthusiasm of the end consumers to take the goods was general, the market situation was lukewarm, and the market performance in the sales area was relatively stable.

1.2. Egg market price trend chart

1.3. Comparison of regional market prices of eggs in China this week

2. analysis of laying hens in the storage column.

2.1 Analysis of the number of columns

According to the statistics of Cold chain Duoduo, by the end of May 2024, the stock of laying hens in the country was about 1.242 billion, and most of the new laying hens opened in May were fenced hens around January 2024, and the egg price and feed cost decreased in January, so the reduction of breeding profit was not obvious. In January 2024, the sales volume of chicken seedlings was 41.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 140000, or 0.33%. It is estimated that the number of new laying hens will decline slightly this week, but the number of new laying will still be higher than the theoretical knockout, still high in the same period, and the supply will continue to increase slightly.

2.2 Analysis of the amount of hurdles

The market of knockout chicken is running strongly this week, and the price of knockout chickens across the country is stable and strong due to the arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival. At present, the profit of breeding is OK, the enthusiasm of eliminating chickens at the breeding end is general, the number of eliminated chickens is relatively limited, and the number of eliminated chickens is not much, and it is approaching the Meiyu season, farmers are worried about the future market, while the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is general. Food enterprises and farmers' markets also purchase on demand, and prices follow the market. It is expected that the price of eliminated chickens will be affected by egg prices next week, with slight adjustments in some areas.

3. Egg demand side analysis

The performance of terminal demand is general, the stock of each link is basically finished, the replenishment enthusiasm of traders is not high, mainly to digest inventory, downstream dealers are cautious in order to avoid risks, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood. At present, affected by the weather, the storage time of eggs is limited, and most downstream consumers purchase on demand, and most of the links are mainly active inventory clearance, the speed of goods in some areas has slowed down, the mood of terminal goods is general, and at the same time, supported by the Dragon Boat Festival, the market has a certain price mentality, and the demand side may be boosted. On the whole, the current market trading atmosphere is cautious, and the demand side is lukewarm.

3.1. Analysis of the amount of cars arriving in the sales area

According to cold chain statistics, 108 vehicles arrived in the Beijing market this week, with an average daily arrival of about 15 vehicles, a decrease of 1 vehicle, or 0.917%, compared with last week. During the week, the arrival of goods in the Beijing market is normal, the digestion speed of the trade link is OK, the market trading atmosphere is general, each link is still bearish, and it is expected that the sales volume in the sales area will be stable next week.

4. Forecast the future of eggs.

From the supply side, the current number of newly opened laying hens is still larger than the theoretical number of eliminated hens, the stock of laying hens is still expected to increase, and farmers can be enthusiastic about Amoy chickens, but there is a local shortage of chickens, and the actual amount of eliminated chickens is not much. The supply side of eggs is still relatively sufficient, to sum up, it is expected that the supply side of the egg market will still be relatively loose next week.

From the demand side, due to the rising temperature, the storage time of eggs is limited, the current market delivery speed is relatively slow, supported by the Dragon Boat Festival, the stock of each link is basically finished, and the terminal demand is OK, and the downstream dealers are cautious in order to avoid future risks. each link is mainly to digest inventory, to sum up, the demand surface is expected to be lukewarm next week.

From the point of view of the market mentality, the egg price is stable, there is still a wait-and-see mood in each link, the shipping in the production area is more positive, the terminal replenishment is homeopathic purchase and sale, and the circulation speed of supply is more general.

Overall, the egg market is expected to operate steadily next week, the performance of red powder may be different, the adjustment range is about 0.10 yuan / jin, and the average price of the main production is 4.00-4.10 yuan / jin.