1. Analysis of Chinese egg market.

1.1. Analysis of egg market price

Egg prices showed a volatile downward trend this week, the market trading atmosphere is general, all links are mainly replenished on demand, and some dealers have a wait-and-see mood for the future. According to Cold chain Duoduo statistics, as of Thursday, the average price of red eggs was 3.86 yuan per jin, and the average price of pink eggs was 3.82 yuan per jin, with a price difference of 0.04 yuan per jin, down 0.17 yuan per jin from last Thursday. At present, the stock of laying hens is still at a high level in the same period, breeding units are more homeopathic shipments, each link of inventory pressure is not big, egg supply remains adequate. The performance of the terminal demand side is lukewarm, currently in the seasonal off-season of the egg market, traders mainly take goods on demand, the terminal delivery speed is general, market sentiment has slowed down.

Producing area market: the average price of eggs in the main producing areas this Thursday is 3.86 yuan / jin, down 0.16 yuan / jin compared with last Thursday. Prices in the main production areas showed a weak downward trend this week, the current inventory pressure in the production areas is not great, the speed of goods in the trade link is general, and some dealers are still empty about the future. As the current stock of laying hens continues to rise slightly from the previous month, the supply of eggs is more adequate, and the supply of eggs in the producing areas remains loose.

Sales area market: the average price of eggs in the main selling area this Thursday is 3.87 yuan / jin, down 0.17 yuan / jin compared with last Thursday. During the week, the market price in the sales area continued to fall, the volume of cars arrived in each region was normal, most of the downstream traders sold along with the purchase, the enthusiasm of the end consumers to take the goods was general, the market situation was lukewarm, and the market performance in the sales area was relatively stable.

1.2. Egg market price trend chart

1.3. Comparison of regional market prices of eggs in China this week

2. analysis of laying hens in the storage column.

2.1 Analysis of the number of columns

According to the statistics of Cold chain Duoduo, by the end of May 2024, the stock of laying hens in the country was about 1.242 billion, and most of the new laying hens opened in May were fenced hens around January 2024, and the egg price and feed cost decreased in January, so the reduction of breeding profit was not obvious. In January 2024, the sales volume of chicken seedlings was 41.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 140000, or 0.33%. It is estimated that the number of new laying hens will decline slightly this month, but the number of new laying will still be higher than the theoretical elimination, still high in the same period, and the supply will continue to increase slightly.

2.2 Analysis of the amount of hurdles

With the narrow adjustment of the chicken market this week, the prices of knockout chickens nationwide rose first and then stabilized due to the boost of the Dragon Boat Festival. At present, the sentiment of farming units to cherish the sale is obvious, and there is a certain support for the price of Taobao chicken, but the number of old chickens that can be eliminated is relatively limited, and the number of eliminated chickens is not much, and near the Meiyu season, farmers are worried about the future market, while the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is general. Food enterprises and farmers' markets also purchase on demand, and prices follow the market. It is expected that the price of eliminated chickens will be temporarily stable affected by egg prices next week, with slight adjustment in some areas.

3. Egg demand side analysis

The performance of terminal demand is general, the pace of post-holiday market shipments slows down, the replenishment enthusiasm of traders is not high, mainly to digest inventory, downstream dealers take goods cautiously to avoid risks, the market has a wait-and-see mood. At present, affected by the weather, the storage time of eggs is limited, most downstream consumers purchase on demand, each link is mainly active inventory clearance, the speed of goods in some areas has slowed down, the mood of terminal goods is general, on the whole, the current market trading atmosphere is cautious, the performance of the demand side is lukewarm.

3.1. Analysis of the amount of cars arriving in the sales area

According to cold chain statistics, 115 vehicles arrived in the Beijing market this week, with an average daily arrival of about 16 vehicles, an increase of 7 vehicles or 6.48% over last week. During the week, the arrival of goods in the Beijing market is normal, the digestion speed of the trade link is general, the market trading atmosphere is lukewarm, each link is still bearish, and sales in the sales area are expected to run steadily next week.

4. Forecast the future of eggs.

From the supply side, the current number of new laying hens is still larger than the theoretical number of eliminated hens, the stock of laying hens is still expected to increase, the sentiment of breeding units is obvious, the short-term Amoy old chickens are still limited, and the number of Amoy chickens is not much. Egg supply is more adequate, to sum up, it is expected that the supply side of the egg market will still be relatively loose next week.

From the demand side, due to the rising temperature, egg storage time is limited, the current post-holiday market trading slows down, the speed of each link is general, the market inventory pressure increases slightly, downstream dealers take goods cautiously in order to avoid future risks, traders are mainly to digest inventory, to sum up, the demand side is expected to perform lukewarm next week.

From the point of view of the market mentality, the egg price is weak, there is still a wait-and-see mood in each link, the shipping in the production area is more positive, the terminal replenishment is homeopathic purchase and sale, and the circulation speed of the supply is more general.

Overall, the egg market is expected to operate temporarily next week, the performance of red powder may be different, the adjustment range is about 0.10 yuan / jin, and the average price of the main production is 3.80-3.90 yuan / jin.