Analysis of natural rubber market price on June 17

index

On June 17, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1720/ton, down US$50/ton from the previous trading day.

market analysis

futures market

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: Thailand has abundant rainfall, and rubber cutting is normal in the northeast. Recently, glue has gradually been produced in the south. However, large factories are rushing to replenish raw materials and deliver early orders. The overall situation is still in short supply. The relative support that raw material prices remain high, but Thailand's production areas are expected to increase. The volume is expected to be relatively obvious, and there is an expectation of dragging prices in the short term.

China: Recent rains and weather in Yunnan production areas have been relatively frequent, which will affect the normal development of rubber tapping in the short term. When the spot market has dropped significantly, weather conditions have certain support for raw material prices.

The current weather conditions in Hainan's production area are still acceptable, and the overall raw materials are in a relatively high volume stage, which in turn drives a downward trend in raw material prices.

On the demand side: Most semi-steel tire companies started operations at high levels to meet order demand. However, the phenomenon of foreign trade shipments and other containers continued. The overall inventory reserves improved slightly compared with the previous period, and the overall inventory of all steel tire companies was sufficient. In terms of the market, there is no direct positive boost in the terminal market. Demand is flat. Shipments from merchants at all levels are slow. The Dragon Boat Festival holiday runs through the superimposed weeks. In addition, during the wheat harvest season in the northern region, some operators have temporarily closed their doors. The shipment volume is even colder. In order to increase shipments, some merchants have flexible promotions.

Futures spot price list

market outlook

This week, the natural rubber market has still maintained a downward trend. So far, the more obvious impact is mostly fundamental changes. Among them, from the perspective of supply ports, the rainfall and weather in China's foreign producing areas have basically eased. With the increase in the cutting area, the overall supply of raw materials is expected to become more obvious, and the expectation of cost-side support is beginning to weaken and is beginning to strengthen; On the demand side, the overall demand in the terminal market is relatively flat, and China's automobile industry has entered the seasonal mid-to-off-season. Oversupply expectations are beginning to become obvious. Rubber will be good for consumption in the short term, and the weak market is expected to remain for some time.