Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the price of soda ash in China is weak and stable. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,400 - 2,500 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in North China is 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton; Enterprise supply continues to be high. Due to the recent continuous weakening of market prices, downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious and the focus is on wait-and-see. Although there are inquiries in the market, the transaction atmosphere is light. The inventory of some manufacturers has increased, and the soda ash market is still operating weakly and steadily.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on June 20, was 2080 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2120 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of +2.32%. The intraday high was 2126 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2065 yuan/ton, with a total position of 726700 lots, a month-on-month +383 lots.

Today, soda ash futures prices showed signs of oversold and rebounded. During the week, the supply side of soda ash itself maintained a rebound trend, and inventories continued to grow, but the accumulation rate slowed significantly compared with Monday. The actual performance of the spot market may exceed expectations, and market transaction prices simultaneously showed signs of stabilization. Subsequent supply-side maintenance plans still exist, and the actual losses during the maintenance season cannot be determined under the disturbance of high temperature factors. There is still some support for subsequent prices when downstream demand is stable. Although the overall market sentiment is still weak at present, the negative factors in the early stage are basically realized in the price decline. In the short term, we can wait and see the sustainability of the rebound and whether new drivers can emerge in the future.

market outlook

The overall start-up of the soda ash market continues to be high, demand is weak, companies are mainly wait-and-see, purchasing sentiment is poor, tensions between supply and demand of soda ash have eased, some prices have been adjusted one after another, and the soda ash market is mainly weak and stable, waiting for new drivers.