Analysis of natural rubber market price on July 17

index

July 17June, Natural Rubber Qingdao Market STR20 Price Index1680 USYuan/ton, compared withThe previous trading day rose by US$5/ton.

market analysis

futures market

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: Thailand's production areas still have the impact of rainfall, the opening area of the production areas has narrowed, and raw material prices have fluctuated within a narrow range.

Domestic: There has been light rain in Yunnan's production areas recently. Due to the influence of market prices and seasonal increases, glue prices have fallen back and stabilized. Dry glue in some processing plants is still in the upside down stage. Self-substitution indicators have gradually entered in Yunnan's production areas, and supply pressure has gradually eased.

Rainfall in Hainan's production area has increased since the weekend, glue output has decreased, and domestic and state-owned glue collection guidance prices have remained stable, but actual glue collection prices have increased within a narrow range.

Demand side:Differences among all-steel tire companies appear. Some first-line brand companies have maintained a start-up rate of 70 - 80%, and some small-scale companies have certain maintenance plans due to their own equipment and order problems. In terms of the market, terminal demand performance has not decreased, and in fact, the number of vehicles has fallen short of expectations. However, considering that the early inventory has been digested and the goods received by customers in the southern region have improved slightly, the overall performance of the northern region has been relatively stable and channel inventory is sufficient.

Futures spot price list

market outlook

Today, the main rubber contract still maintains a weak consolidation. Recently, the overall fluctuations in rubber futures have been relatively limited. The fundamentals have remained at the previous stage. The seasonal release trend on the supply side remains unchanged. However, due to recent weather disturbances, the decline in raw material prices has slowed down, and the downstream market demand is flat. The pressure on production and marketing of tire companies remains unchanged, and flexible production control will continue. Social inventories maintained a de-stocking trend, but the de-stocking speed slowed down and market bull sentiment also began to decline. In the short term, the negative sentiment in the Tianjiao market is relatively heavy, and rubber prices are still expected to weaken under the market game.