Analysis of natural rubber market price on August 13

index

August 13June, Natural Rubber Qingdao Market STR20 Price Index1770 USYuan/ton, compared withThe previous trading day rose by US$5/ton.

market analysis

futures market

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: There is more rainfall in northeastern Thailand than in the south, and there is still more rainfall overall, which affects the pace of new rubber release. Restocking by secondary suppliers is not smooth, and there is not much room for downside in raw material purchase prices.

Domestic: Currently, Yunnan production has been fully cut, but there are frequent rains and weather, falling leaves have occurred in some areas, and raw material prices have shown a narrow upward trend.

The weather in Hainan's production areas has eased, the amount of raw materials stored is expected, and the actual purchase price of raw materials has not changed significantly yet.

Demand side:Some enterprises in Shandong are affected by factors such as the maintenance of equipment and thermal power plants. Some enterprises still have short-term maintenance, and the overall equipment of all-steel tire enterprises is still in weak operation. In terms of the market, channel inventory is sufficient, and actual shipment is slow. In order to meet market demand, some agents have stored certain promotional guidelines. The actual shipment effect is average. Most channel dealers currently have high inventory reserves, and their willingness to purchase is weakened, seeking low-price guidance.

Futures spot price list

market outlook

Today, the main rubber contract exceeded 16000 yuan/ton, and the turbulent upward trend continued to strengthen. Up to now, the rainfall in northeastern Thailand in the upstream producing area is significantly higher than that in the south, and the overall precipitation is abundant. This meteorological condition has a significant impact on the output rhythm of new rubber, resulting in a slowdown in the market supply rhythm. Yunnan's production areas have fully entered the rubber tapping season. However, frequent rainfall has caused certain interference to production, and even fallen leaves have occurred in some areas, exacerbating supply constraints. There is support for upstream prices, which also provides impetus for rubber to fluctuate upwards in the short term. Downstream start-ups have basically remained relatively stable, and some maintenance companies have resumed construction one after another. However, the overall shipment performance is average, and the performance of new orders within the month is differentiated. However, in order to meet customer needs, short-term start-ups will remain. Inventories in domestic bonded zones continue to be slowly depleted, and prices still form a certain support. In the short term, they may continue to maintain a strong and volatile trend.