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September 2, 2024, 4:26 PM
Analysis of natural rubber market price on September 2
index
a 9 - 2June, Natural Rubber Qingdao Market STR20 Price Index1830 beautifulYuan/ton, compared withThe previous trading day fell by 30 yuan/ton.
market analysis
futures market
spot market
Supply:
Foreign countries: Recently, strong monsoon weather has penetrated southern and eastern Thailand, and some rubber plantations have been severely affected. There is a shortage of raw materials in southern Thailand. Factories have saved high prices to rush to replenish warehouses. Thai raw material prices have remained firm at high levels.
China: The rainfall in Yunnan's production areas has decreased slightly, and it has gradually entered the rubber harvest stage. The current increase in raw material output has not been as expected. The supply exceeds demand, and the price of glue is relatively strong.
The weather conditions in Hainan's production areas are performing well, and precipitation is still repeated in some areas, but the impact on the overall rubber tapping work is relatively limited. Raw material production maintains a seasonal increase trend. However, due to recent typhoon weather, the actual rubber harvest price remains high.
Demand side:It is understood that semi-steel tyre enterprises continue to start at a high level, and the operating rate of all-steel tyre enterprises has increased slightly, mainly due to the resumption of work by maintenance enterprises. However, there are still some enterprises controlling production, affecting the overall increase in start-up. In terms of the market, in order to complete the task volume, some agents passively replenished goods, which led to an improvement in overall trading, and channels also pressed downward on goods. However, terminal stores continued to need replenishment, and the inventory of agents and channels increased.
Futures spot price list
market outlook
Today, the main rubber contract has shown a significant correction trend. Judging from the current supply and demand situation, due to the impact of rainfall and weather in the main natural rubber producing areas outside China on the supply side, raw material prices may remain high, and there is still support in the short term. Terminal starts have improved slightly, pre-maintenance factories have resumed operations one after another, and overall trading in the spot market has improved slightly, but only maintained demand. Overall, there are expectations for improvement in fundamentals, but the rubber market was profit-taking at a high level in the early stage, and rubber continued to have insufficient upward momentum and remained relatively weak in the short term.
