Analysis of natural rubber market price on September 27

index

September 27June, Natural Rubber Qingdao Market STR20 Price Index2090 beautifulYuan/ton, compared withStable on the previous trading day.

market analysis

futures market

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: There is still heavy rainfall in some areas of Thailand, which affects rubber cutting work and factory production and transportation, and the purchase price of raw materials remains high.

VietnamThe weather in the production area is relatively abnormal compared with previous years, precipitation disturbances continue, rubber tapping work is still not smooth, and the overall supply of raw materials falls short of expectations. Some factories are actively purchasing raw materials in order to make up orders。

China: Rubber collection work has been gradually carried out in various areas in the south of Yunnan's production area, and glue has entered the stage of increasing quantity. Affected by market prices, raw glue prices continue to rise.

Rainfall and weather in Hainan's production areas have improved. In order to ensure their own production, some processing plants are actively rushing to buy raw materials, which in turn drives the purchase price of raw materials to continue to rise, and the actual rubber price received by the processing plants remains high.

Demand side:It is understood that under the influence of factors such as exchange rate adjustments and high raw material prices, export profits have shrunk significantly and corporate export pressure has increased. Around the National Day, some all-steel tire companies have maintenance plans, which will cause a certain drag on the overall start of construction. In terms of the market, agents and downstream channels have sufficient inventory, and terminal demand is weak. As raw material prices continue to rise, some channel dealers are bullish. However, considering the lack of funds and weak terminal demand, replenishment is still weak.

Futures spot price list

market outlook

At the close of today, the main rubber contract remained at a high level. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream companies have begun maintenance and holiday seasons before the holiday season, dragging down expectations of a decline in overall start-up and storage. The rainfall on the rubber supply side has improved, and the overall output has improved slightly. Coupled with the recent macro market recovery, rubber prices may remain high and volatile as market funds intensify. After the National Day holiday, rainfall in Southeast Asia has a trend of easing, expectations for concentrated production in production areas are strong, raw material prices are under pressure, and rubber cost support is weakening. However, the arrival of overseas goods in Hong Kong has a certain shipping schedule, and the liquidity in the spot market is still tight. Inventories continue to be depleted of Lido rubber. There is limited room for downward pressure on rubber prices. After the holiday, Tianjiao continues to operate strongly.