I.Summary of egg market this month

Egg prices first rose and then fell this month, egg prices rose strongly in the first ten days of the month, the trading atmosphere in all links was OK, and domestic sales in some areas were fast. At the same time, with the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival festival, the market sentiment was strong, and the rising mood was heightened. With the end of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the volume of goods in the trade link decreased, the downstream dealers actively cleared the inventory, the market trading atmosphere weakened, and the inventory pressure in some areas increased slightly. The price of eggs is weak and downward. The average price of this month in the main producing areas is 4.87 yuan / jin, up 0.12 yuan / jin over the previous month, the average price of red eggs is 4.98 yuan / jin, the average price of pink eggs is 4.92 yuan / jin, and the price difference is 0.06 yuan / jin. At present, the stock of laying hens is slightly lower than the previous month, the enthusiasm of breeding units is general, slaughtering enterprises buy on demand, and the pressure of egg supply has been reduced. The performance of the demand side is general, the replenishment demand of traders after the festival has declined, the speed of market delivery has slowed down, the major merchants are cautious about taking goods, the inventory pressure in some areas has slightly increased, and the terminal is still in a wait-and-see mood.

Egg price index trend chart

II. Analysis of the fundamentals of the egg market this month

2.1 supply side analysis

According to the statistics of Cold chain Duoduo, as of the end of September 2024, the stock of laying hens in the country is about 1.217 billion, and most of the new laying hens opened in September are fattening hens around May 2024. May is the off-season of the egg industry, and laying hens have lost money. The enthusiasm of breeding units is generally on the low side, and the number of eliminated hens in the superimposed month gradually decreases, and the trading of live poultry in the downstream market is not as expected. In May 2024, the sales of chicken seedlings was 43.27 million, a decrease of 1.09 million, or 2.46%, compared with the previous month. It is estimated that the number of new laying hens opened this month decreased slightly compared with the previous month, and the supply pressure on the egg market was reduced. The overall situation of the knockout chicken market is stable this month, the price position of the national knockout chicken is on the high side within the month, and the breeding end is in a good position to eliminate older chickens, but the acquisition enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises is general, and food enterprises and farmers' markets also purchase on demand, and the price follows the market. To sum up, the stock of laying hens dropped slightly this month, and the supply of eggs was relatively stable.

2.2 demand side analysis

The overall performance of the demand side of this month is mediocre. Affected by the beginning of the school year and the preparation of goods during the Mid-Autumn Festival, there is a preference for goods in most areas, the circulation speed of goods supply is OK, the bullish sentiment in the market heats up, the demand for replenishment by traders has declined after the mid-month festival, and all links are purchased and sold as soon as possible. some merchants are super cautious to take goods, and the speed of goods in the market slows down. Later in the month, as the consumer season is coming to an end, dealers mainly digest inventory, the terminal consumer demand is weak, and the wait-and-see mood of operators has increased. On the whole, the demand side of this month is lukewarm.

2.3 Analysis of vehicle arrivals in sales area

According to cold chain statistics, 488 vehicles arrived in the Beijing market this month, with an average daily arrival of about 16 vehicles, an increase of 40 vehicles, or 8.93%, over last month. The arrival of goods in the Beijing market is normal this month, and there is little change in the total amount of cars arriving within the month. Most of the downstream traders are mainly active in clearing the inventory, and the terminal is followed up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the wait-and-see mood of each link is strong.

III. Analysis of the egg market this month

3.1 Analysis of spot price of eggs this month

In terms of producing areas:The average price in the main producing areas this month was 4.87 yuan per jin, up 0.12 yuan per jin over the previous month, or 2.53%. During the month, prices in the main producing areas showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The egg price in the early ten-day production area is on the strong side, and there is a preference for goods in some areas, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders is OK, and the market sentiment is on the strong side. Egg prices fell mainly in the last ten days, the pace of market delivery slowed down, local market inventory increased, the mood of end consumers to take goods in general.

Sales area:The average price in the main selling area this month was 4.89 yuan / jin, up 0.32 yuan / jin over the previous month, or 6.88%. During the month, the price in the main selling area was first strong and then weak. Affected by domestic sales in the producing area in the first ten days, the market trading atmosphere preferred, and the egg price rose strongly. In the last ten days, the price of the sales area is driven by the weak operation of the production area, the traders are still cautious in taking the goods, most of them are actively clearing the inventory, and the terminal is mainly purchasing on demand.

Price trend chart of main egg producing areas

Price trend chart of egg main selling area

3.2 Analysis of egg futures market this month

This month egg futures main contract 2501 showed a concussive weak trend, the first ten days of the month egg futures main contract 2410 was replaced by 2501. As of September 27th, 2024, it closed at 3514 yuan / 500kg. This month, the lowest closing price is 3500 yuan / 500kg, the highest closing price is 3729 yuan / 500kg, and the price difference is 229yuan / 500kg. In the first ten days of the month, the spot price showed a strong upward trend, the inventory pressure in each link was small, the overall trading atmosphere in the market was good, and the futures market was basically consistent with the spot, showing a trend of strong shock. Late in the month, as the pace of market delivery slows down, local market inventory increases slightly, the spot price of eggs runs weakly, and the terminal demand is general, the futures market is affected by this, the shock weakens, and the adjustment range is small.

IV.Egg export data

According to customs data, in August 2024, China exported a total of 11839.602 tons of fresh eggs, with an export value of US $17731297 and an average export price of US $1497.626 per ton. the export volume decreased by 231.146 tons compared with July and 1.91% month-on-month. Year-on-year increase of 6.24% the cumulative export volume in 2024 increased by 4.71% over the same period last year.

4.1 Export volume

4.2 Export amount

4.3 average export price

5.Future forecast

From the supply side, the current number of newly opened laying hens is less than the theoretical number of eliminated hens, the number of laying hens is reduced compared with the previous month, the number of eliminated hens is general, and most breeding units choose homeopathic elimination, the trading in the downstream market is lukewarm, the supply pressure of egg supply is reduced, the superimposed weather gradually turns cool, and the laying rate may pick up somewhat, and it is expected that the egg supply side will be relatively loose next month.

From the perspective of demand, the current consumer demand in the downstream market is weak. Dealers are cautious in taking goods to avoid risks. They mainly replenish goods on demand in all links. The market moving speed is average, and inventory pressure in some areas has increased slightly. In the later period, with the arrival of the National Day Festival, the positive factors for catering and tourism consumption have increased, and the industry has a strong sense of supporting prices. Demand is expected to improve next month.

From the perspective of market mentality, egg prices first rise and then fall, with a strong wait-and-see attitude in all links, shipments from production areas are more active, and terminal replenishment is relatively cautious, and the circulation of goods may be affected by this.

On the whole, it is expected that the egg market will operate strongly next month, and the performance of red powder may vary. The adjustment range will be around 0.10 yuan/catty, and the average price of main products will be 4.70-4.80 yuan/catty.