Analysis of soda ash market

Today, some low prices in the soda ash market in China have been raised within a narrow range. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is 1,450 - 1,600 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,450 - 1,700 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,350 - 1,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,450 - 1,600 yuan/ton. Recently, the market supply has been relatively stable, and the equipment load of some soda plants has been slightly adjusted; downstream companies still maintain just purchasing needs, mainly low-priced transactions, and the orders on hand by companies have increased month-on-month; in the market supply and demand game, soda ash prices in some areas have been negotiated in a single way, and transaction flexibility has been enhanced.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 27, was 1545 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1579 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.55% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1599 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1527 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1122372 lots, a month-on-month-on-month-on-month.

Glass futures prices continued to rise sharply today. Recently, positive feedback from the spot market driven by macro sentiment has continued. After the transaction situation between the middle and upper reaches strengthened, the quotations of some manufacturers have been raised. Although the actual downstream demand cannot be fully accommodated, the macro sentiment still has expectations and sustainability in the follow-up. Industrial conflicts may not be highlighted for the time being under the appearance of inventory circulation. In the short term, it can be observed whether the policy will be further supported by fiscal efforts and whether the upstream price fixing behavior of the spot market and the midstream receiving efforts can continue the development of the market.

market outlook

Maintenance companies have resumed production, and market start-up expectations have increased; soda ash prices are low, and some market participants believe that the price has hit bottom, and the sentiment of preparing appropriate quantities before the holiday has increased; soda ash inventories are still at a high level, and companies in some regions are actively shipping, and new order prices are expected to be adjusted in a narrow range, and the overall market is still in a wait-and-see and game stage.